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Navigating Through Today’s Economic Storm David Henkes; Vice President and On-Premise Practice Leader; Excerpted from November 2008 Technomic Beverage Concept Watch
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The government recently confirmed what we’ve all suspected for some time – our economy is officially in a recession. While the economic crises of this fall didn’t necessarily hit us as suddenly
as a tornado, the effects have been just as devastating. At Technomic, we’ve been watching the economic and industry
indicators for years, and going back to 2006 we were issuing warnings about flattening same store sales. Things have been
on a long downward spiral since then.
For now, positive same stores reports are of a bygone era, as we get into a new era of ongoing declining same store sales reports. In the third quarter, full service restaurant same store sales were down 2.5%, and the fourth quarter will likely fare no better. Soaring food costs have led to higher check averages, which have hidden steep declines in traffic.
The biggest question we get from operators and suppliers is when it will all be
over and the industry will get back to “normal.” Our crystal ball is a bit cloudy
on the “when,” but in a general sense we need to see increases in consumer
discretionary income and much higher confidence in their own situation and in
the economy. Some post-election polls indicate that this may be starting, and
lower gas prices certainly have the effect of putting more money in consumers’
pockets.
(Continued in Technomic Beverage Concept Watch. To Subscribe.)