In the News

Carl's Jr. has struggled with its Green Burrito twinned format on the West Coast and many other co-branded ideas have also faced challenges, according to Ron Paul, president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago market research firm

But Paul says opening an ice cream-only format inside Burger King makes sense for Friendly's and can help introduce new customers to the Fribble. The start-up cost is also far below that of regular Friendly's restaurants, which are typically around 2,500 square feet.

"If the concepts are complimentary and it doesn't mess up operations, co-branding is a valid strategy," Paul said. "I think burgers and ice cream can work, as long as they have enough traffic."

Some stores are seeing double-digit sales increases after the remodeling, which industry analyst Darren Tristano at Technomic says is also an attempt to face the increasing competition with "fast-casual" restaurants head on.

A report published in 2011 by Chicago-based Technomic found that daily-deal customers are not necessarily fickle.

Of restaurant-goers who had used a group-buying coupon, two-thirds told Technomic they later returned to the same restaurant without being given a discount. Another 83 percent recommended that eatery to a friend or family member.

The coupons also spurred trial. Forty-eight percent of respondents used them at restaurants they had never visited.

According to a study conducted by Technomic, the number of menu items described as being "gluten-free" grew significantly between 2010 and 2011, increasing by 61 percent.

Food allergies: operators seize opportunity to reach new audience with
special menus, gluten-free dishes

Indeed, many people still remain fans of Olive Garden. It rang up $3.3 billion in sales in 2010. Its closest competitor, Carrabba's Italian Grill, brought in $650.5 million, according to research firm Technomic.

"I think the perception of the house wine has shifted from the cheap, value-oriented wine," said David Henkes, vice president and leader of the adult beverage practice at Technomic. "It's still seen as a value, but it's increasingly seen as a signature product of something that's very specific to that restaurant or chain. A lot of times those are still positioned as a value alternative, but they're not seen as lower quality or that generic house wine like they were five or 10 years ago."

Taco Bell is also in a market that is growing slowly. Sales at limited-service restaurants increased 1.9 percent to $195 billion in 2010, according to latest figures from Technomic Inc. in Chicago.

While Darren Tristano, executive vice president at research firm Technomic, said the appeal of True Food Kitchen is limited to more affluent areas, he believes the concept's success will encourage others to add more healthful options to their menu offerings. And, he noted, True Food Kitchen's healthful bent will prove an advantage as nutrition disclosure on menus becomes widespread.

The chain is also trying to catch up to competitors that have already taken advantage of growing demand for the first meal of the day. Consumers are increasingly swinging by restaurants to pick up breakfast, according to research group Technomic.

"There are some real food-quality issues here," says Ron Paul, president of research firm Technomic. "But there's no question that consumer expectation for having things delivered has risen."

Alcohol sales in bars and restaurants are expected to rise this year, research group Technomic Inc. said. The firm projects the wine sector to have a 3.5% bump, and beer sales to increase 2.2%, especially as craft brews become more popular.

The company is among the top 100 limited-service sandwich chains in the U.S., says Technomic, a restaurant and food research group based in Chicago.

Pinkberry is entering a market with plenty of competitors, including traditional ice cream stores, fast-growing self-serve, frozen-yogurt franchises and smoothie chains, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago food consultant Technomic.

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Pinkberry fills a niche for affluent women ages 16 to 35 who want "a more healthful, contemporary and hip style of snack," Tristano said.

Phillip's Original Coney Island is 100 years old today, a feat the family owned restaurant is celebrating this week with $1 coneys, free birthday cake and giveaways to its customers.

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What's even more unusual is for a food-oriented business to remain open for 100 years, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago restaurant- and food-research group.

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To sustain such longevity, consistency in ownership, leadership and philosophy of the brand is important, as well as evolving and adapting over time, Tristano said.

Chipotle's sales grew 20.7 percent in 2010, compared with the year before, reported Technomic, a food-research firm.

 According to restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., Submarina competes in a sandwich segment that has grown to more than 30 national and regional chains that posted more than $23 billion in 2010 U.S. sales, up 1.5 percent from the prior year.

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Technomic estimates that Submarina had 2010 sales of approximately $17 million, with annual sales holding between $17 million and $19 million during the past three years.

In 2010, major fast-casual chains pulled in $18.9 billion -- a 6 percent increase, according to research group Technomic.

"This category has essentially blown through the recession without skipping a beat," Technomic Executive Vice President Darren Tristano said.

A food service industry analyst, Bob Goldin of Technomic, hailed the new combine as a major game-changing experience in the food service industry.

"Advantage Waypoint LLC represents the emergence of a 'mega' broker that services all food industry channels throughout virtually all the U.S.," Goldin wrote in his company's newsletter when the deal was announced. "It will likely serve as a catalyst for further broker consolidation, and it will be particularly interesting to see how the other regional foodservice brokers and the major retail brokers respond.

Seventy-five percent of convenience-store customers visit at least weekly for ready-to-eat foods, according to Chicago-based research company Technomic, compared with 53 percent a year ago.

In the past four or five years, C-stores have taken off, building on breakfast programs that began with the standard coffee and doughnuts to a more robust and palatable menu including fresh salads, sandwiches and burgers.

"It's on," said Tim Powell, director-research and consulting at Technomic. "It's been very competitive. C-stores will say the No. 1 concern for growth over the next two or three years is [quick-service restaurants]."

"You're not going to see a lot of new restaurant development in places like California until you start seeing improvement in the employment."

- Darren Tristano, executive vice president with restaurant consulting firm Technomic Inc.

According to Technomic, the restaurant industry expects to eke out 0.5% growth, mostly from fast-food and fast-casual chains. But growth is growth, right?

In fact, use of the word "healthy" in menu descriptions has increased 86 percent from 2010 to 2011, according to market-research firm Technomic. In addition, use of the term "low fat" increased by 33 percent, while "fat free" and "nonfat" went up by 12 percent. The phrase "no sugar" increased by 51 percent.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm, is forecasting growth in the fast-casual and full-service restaurant sector in 2012, the first time since the Great Recession reared up.

He's forecasting 2.5 percent growth next year. The reason: The employment picture has improved somewhat in the U.S.

"There's a lot of walking dead," said Bob Goldin, executive vice president for Technomic, a consulting firm that works with restaurant companies. "A lot of chains, they hang in there and they're hard to kill off."

Expanding product sales through online channels is a smart move, said Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant- and food-research firm.

"Online shopping has become more and more common among consumers, so there's no reason why it shouldn't work well for the restaurant industry," he said.

Fast-casual is still only a small segment of the industry. But it tripled its market share in roughly the last decade to about 6% of restaurants and is the industry's only segment to grow in the last five years, analysts said. In 2010, major fast-casual chains pulled in $18.9 billion -- a 6% increase, according to research group Technomic.

"This category has essentially blown through the recession without skipping a beat," Technomic Executive Vice President Darren Tristano said in a statement.

Cupcakes aren't new, but paying $3 to $5 for one is, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president with Technomic, a food industry research firm.

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"It really became a nice, affordable indulgence," Tristano said.

Cupcakes have weathered the economy well because they are an affordable luxury, he said and eaters don't have to buy a whole cake to enjoy something sweet and unnecessary.

The once-high-flying sandwich chain has been struggling in recent years under a heavy debt load, falling sales and intensifying competition from Subway and others. Sales fell 23 percent from 2008 to 2010, and the number of stores has plummeted from about 5,000 to possibly fewer than 3,000, according to restaurant consulting firm Technomic Inc.

The companies see alcoholic beverages as a growth opportunity after years of flat sales, said David Henkes, of the Chicago-based food research firm Technomic. "Alcohol is one of those things that is extremely profitable to the operator," he said.

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White Castle would face challenges trying to roll out beer and wine on a wider scale, Henkes said.

"What we find with fast-food places is, there's very strict regulations around training. Typically, a lot of the employees in fast food are under 21, so you get into some service issues," he said. "You get into some inventory issues. You get into whether distributors are willing to deliver to you because you're generally not doing a whole lot of volume in these categories."

The $200-$250 million cupcake industry in the U.S. has seen a solid three years of growth and show no signs of slowing down any time soon, said Darren Tristano, the executive vice president of Technomic, a food consulting firm.

"This is a gourmet indulgence that people are willing to put their money out there for," Tristano said. "Much like how we justify paying for Starbucks, consumers' mind-set is that they can still afford to treat themselves on something sweet and satisfying."

A Technomic report in August found that Mooyah was the third-fastest-growing better-burger chain in terms of unit growth, besting Five Guys Burgers and Fries, Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers, and
The Habit Burger Grill.

Research firm Technomic Inc. said 41 percent of 1,250 Southern California consumers recently surveyed online either "agreed" or "strongly agreed" with the statement, "I believe that prepared foods from retailers are restaurant-quality foods at better prices."

Only 20 percent of the survey group "disagreed" or "strongly disagreed," while 39 percent neither agreed nor disagreed, according to Jenny Anderson, a director of research and consulting for Chicago-based Technomic, who also oversees the company's Retail Meal Solutions Monitor program.

Between 2010 and 2011, the number of gluten-free items at major chains, emerging and top independent restaurants nationwide jumped to 282 from 175, an increase of 61%, according to a recent report from Chicago-based food consultant Technomic Inc.

"There are very limited barriers to entry for this type of a market and there's a lot of interest, from franchising to independent operators, to people who are just saying this is a great building business and I think I can make money because the economics are very good," says Darren Tristano, executive vice president of the Chicago-based food industry consulting and research firm Technomic.

"It's a very good model not just for an operator, but the price point is very good for today's consumer who wants value and is looking for this fresh style of healthy-perceived frozen yogurt."

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The frozen dessert category -- which includes frozen yogurt, frozen drinks, and ice cream -- is a $7.1 billion market, says Tristano. Frozen yogurt sales make up only 10 percent to 14 percent of that market, he adds.

"When you look at Landry's or Tilman, the way they purchase brands is they don't tend to grow the brands," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based food industry consultant Technomic. "They look for strong brands they can modernize, contemporize -- even remodel -- and raise their operating margins. I haven't really seen very many of the brands add units after they've been acquired."

A fresh look at Morton's could be welcome, Tristano said, as the restaurant must appeal to younger consumers who can stick with the brand as they mature. New steakhouses offering a trendier vibe are popping up in cities like Chicago.

"The shift is more toward The Capital Grille style or a modern, contemporary steakhouse versus the old, dark wood, Morton's style," Tristano said. "The brand likely needs to evolve to a point where it's the Generation X consumer and some of the more affluent millennials that are looking at the restaurant."

But at the research and consulting firm Technomic, trend-watchers are seeing that small chains - like the Greene Turtle, the Tilted Kilt and burger joint Five Guys - are flourishing, which suggests that modest budgets and savvy locations deliver results.

According to the industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., the Mexican fast-casual restaurant category tallied more than $4.2 billion in U.S. sales during 2010, up 9 percent from the prior year.

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Mary Chapman, director of product innovation at Technomic, noted that an economy geared to fast-casual dining--often lower priced than the offerings of full-service restaurants--is one element raising the profile of Mexican fare.

"Consumers are also calling for authentic ethnic dining experiences and spicier, more flavorful foods, so Mexican concepts and menu items are on trend in a number of ways right now," Chapman said.

When you look at licensing requirements, staffing requirements, you get into operational issues, storage issues and training for something that's going to give you maybe 1% to 3% for sales of alcohol; it's hard to justify for a lot of places, says David Henkes, vice-president at Chicago food consultant Technomic Inc.

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Technomic, which tracks customer restaurant visits, estimates Starbucks dinner visits at a miniscule 2% of its overall daily traffic, compared with 23% for McDonalds.

 In its 2010 ranking of the nation's top chicken chains, research firm Technomic Inc. put Wingstop in ninth place with about 470 locations. While Wingstop will probably move up on the 2011 list, it still has a fraction of the 5,000-plus outlets operated by market leader KFC.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, said the move makes sense given the cafe environment, adding that Burger King is also experimenting with beer service at its Whopper Bar chain.

"Higher price points can be more profitable, but permitting could be more of an issue and a really important factor will be how guests who consume adult beverages interact with guests who don't," he said.

According to the restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., tablets remain a long way from mainstream usage by dining establishments, but are gaining traction The firm's latest national survey found that 27 percent of consumers are interested in using iPads as a menu in full-service restaurants.

"The level of interest was notably higher among those 45 and younger," said Erik Thoresen, echnomic's director of research and consulting. "For things like wine menus, iPads open a lot of doors in terms of being able to educate patrons about different varieties and pairings."

According to the restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., traditional fast-food restaurants are increasingly moving toward breakfast and cafe offerings to drive traffic beyond the lunch and dinner periods.

Erik Thoresen, a research and consulting director at Technomic, said the cafe format helps Subway offer "a different look and feel" at some of its locations, while making the restaurants more like social hangouts to encourage loyal repeat business.

"Familiarity trends upward in a shaky economy. In many cases, consumers will try something if they know what it is," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a consulting firm. "They're more likely to try that mac-and-cheese and twice-baked potato than a Thai pizza."

Other pluses, he said, include low overhead. Toppers, which will deliver within a two-mile radius, is considered a quick-service restaurant in that pizzas can be ordered at the counter, picked up and taken home.

Chicago-based foodservice research and consulting firm Technomic Inc. released seven trends for U.S. restaurants in 2012, one of which noted that "shell-shocked consumers are in no mood to take risks, but novel flavors still tingle their taste buds." For the restaurant industry, Technomic recommends comfort foods with a twist or innovation in familiar formats, such as sandwiches, pizza and pasta.

"Senior discounts haven't gone away, but they are not as prevalent," said Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a chain restaurant research firm. "It's awkward for a server to challenge someone to prove their age."

"The idea of a normal day being breakfast, lunch and dinner is a myth," says Ron Paul, president of Technomic.

"We're starting to see consumers return to having a drink or two while they're out," Technomic VP David Henkes said in a press release.

Overall, Technomic is projecting consumer spending on alcohol at restaurants and bars to increase 2.4 percent in 2012. Wine sales will have the strongest growth, with a 3.5 percent increase in 2012. Beer sales are expected to increase 2.2 percent and spirits 2.3 percent.

"The whole family dining sector is caught in the middle and not doing very well," says Ron Paul, president of the research firm Technomic. Many consumers, instead, are gravitating to fast-casual restaurants such as Panera Bread and Chipotle, he says, which typically serve food more quickly and where consumers aren't expected to leave tips. This, he says, is family dining's attempt to mimic fast-casual.

On top of that, Paul says, family dining locations are typically very big on breakfast, but many Millennials (who are key targets) simply don't do breakfast -- at least, not at conventional breakfast hours.

Sweet treats have gained ground with consumers during the recession, with Technomic estimating that 70 percent of consumers ate dessert at least once a week during 2010. That's up from 57 percent in 2007.

"Most people, when the economy is tough, turn to desserts as comfort food and an indulgent way of getting past a tough day or a tough life," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic.

Bob Goldin, executive vice president of the Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm Technomic Inc., agreed. Established restaurants typically set up a stand to sell their most popular menu item at the hometown fair.

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Still, Turkey to Go restaurants may have a shot. "The good news is they have a local following and it's not something you eat once a year," he said. The bad news is that there is lots of competition for turkey sandwiches. Still, "these guys sound like they are pretty smart managing their capital, and they are probably having a lot of fun."

Technomic's director of product innovation, Mary Chapman, expects restaurants to promote more ethnic, artisan and wood-fired items, for example, as opposed to dishes inspired by less-familiar, edgier global cuisines.

"If there was a common theme, it would be remaining as relevant to consumers as possible," Chapman said. "Certainly value is a piece of that. Consumers want as much as they can get for the money, and they see value in an item that's fresh, made just for me and also serving my community by supporting my local farmers."

In 2010, Anthony's had $37 million in sales, up more than 60 percent from the previous year, according to Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based food consulting group.

Moe's menu includes burritos, tacos, fajitas and salads. It competes with the likes of Chipotle, said Kevin Higar, director of research and consulting at Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant- and food-research firm.

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"They really go to great lengths to be remembered," Higar said. "Consumers are greeted with a 'welcome to Moe's' shout-out from the employees, and they name each of their individual burritos."

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Moe's growth plans come as the fast-casual segment continues to grow, outpacing the quick-service and full-service dining category with growth rates of between 4 and 5 percent, Higar said.

"I think when most Americans think about innovation, they tend to thinkabout L.A., Dallas, Chicago and New York, but I think thats changing," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based Technomic Inc., a food and food service industry consulting firm. "Cleveland may be under the radar, but its doing more, and were starting to see trends from the Midwest influence national trends."

A recent report by Chicago restaurant consultancy Technomic found 70 percent of moms order off kids' menus because their kids "want it," while only 13 percent said "healthy options" were the reason. "You can bring a horse to water, but you can't make them drink," said Darren Tristano, Technomic executive vice president. "It's an obligation of the parents to have the child eating something healthier as well as the child to eat it."

Kevin Higar, a director with market research firm Technomic Inc., told the more than 175 attendees that consumers are seeking customization, freshness, signature items they can't replicate at home and ethnic flavors.

A recent Technomic Inc./ WorkPlace Media survey found that half of respondents said they are more likely to eat out during the 2011 holiday season, compared with their average dining habits the rest of the year. Forty-three percent said they are more likely to dine out with co-workers during the holidays.

In addition, 63 percent said they intend to purchase at least one restaurant gift card, and 35 percent said they plan to purchase at least three restaurant gift cards.

According to the consulting firm Technomic Inc., the "better burger" segment has witnessed some of the U.S. restaurant industry's fastest growth during the past year, despite a still tough economy for eateries.

Since Quaker has no yogurt plants, it would need to contract with outsiders to make products. Bob Goldin, executive vice-president of Chicago-based food consultant Technomic Inc., says there are plenty of suppliers. They include dairy companies like Dallas-based Dean Foods Co. and Phoenix-based Shamrock Foods Co., as well as big grocery chains that make private-label goods.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm, said Papa Murphy's is the leading "take 'n' bake" chain in the country, with estimated revenue in 2010 of $655 million, followed by Salem, Ore.-based Figaro's Pizza with $20 million, Chicago-based HomeMade Pizza Co. with $15.4 million and Nick-N-Willy's, a unit of Centennial, Colo.-based World Famous Pizza Co. Ltd., with $13 million.

"Papa Murphy's without a doubt is the big player," Tristano said. "Their competition tends to be warehouse clubs and supermarkets."

According to Technomic, the frozen yogurt market is estimated at $700 million to $1 billion in annual sales.

"This is an opportunity for Pizza Inn to find the fountain of youth," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a research firm in Chicago. "They understand this market, with 50-plus years of experience. It's still around. It's a survivor."

According to the industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., Sammy's Woodfired Pizza has generally held steady in sales over the past three years - maintaining around $32 million in annual revenue - within a growing U.S. pizza industry that had restaurant sales of nearly $30 billion in 2010.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based Technomic, said the pizza category has been sliced into numerous niches, as local and regional purveyors continually seek to differentiate themselves based on pricing, crust styles, cooking methods and toppings, with a wide range of exotic and health-oriented combinations.

Darren Tristano, executive vice-president of restaurant and food consulting firm Technomic Inc. in Chicago, says that for prepared meals in grocery stores, most people buy fried and rotisserie chicken, then barbecue ribs and french fries. Indulgence is still a better position than health products, he says.

"Overall consumers are cutting back on spending, so when they go out to eat, they get something they really want," said Sara Monette, director-consumer research at Technomic. In a recent Technomic report, data show that only 23% of consumers polled strongly agree that they tend to pick healthful foods when eating out.

It's "very smart" for Tazinos not to try to market the healthy aspect because consumers often equate healthy with bad-tasting, said Darren Tristano, an executive vice president at Technomic Inc., a Chicago food industry consultant.

Rather, the chain can teach people about its food as they come through the doors, Tristano said.

"It's about filling those nonpeak" hours, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of industry research firm Technomic. "The goal is to get more traffic in without cannibalizing peak" sales periods.

"There's a downtime between lunch and dinner where restaurants can really do something to maximize their footprint," David Henkes, a vice president at Technomic, told Nation's Restaurant News. "Anything you can do to get consumers to stay for dinner or to buy other drinks will pay off."

"There is often a disconnect between consumers' intentions and their actions," said Technomic executive Darren Tristano. "Many consumers are actually making substantial changes to their overall habits, even basing which restaurants they frequent in part based on their impressions of the healthfulness of the brands. However, as many of us know from personal experience, diners do not always follow through on their intentions once it is time to order."

Restaurant owners have mixed feelings on whether online daily deals benefit their business, according to a survey released Thursday by Chicago-based food industry consultancy Technomic.

"This is a new tack, a new promotional vehicle that they're willing to try," said Bob Goldin, executive vice president at Technomic. "There are some positive results, but it doesn't seem as if the restaurants are saying (they're) committed to this as a long-term marketing strategy."

Charley's Grilled Subs' relationship with the U.S. military is helping it expand and add locations overseas.

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The company is among the top 100 limited-service sandwich chains in the U.S., according to Technomic, a Chicago restaurant- and food-research group.

Charley's presence on military bases is a good strategy for the company's growth, both domestically and overseas, said Darren Tristano, Technomic executive vice president. "The big challenge in the restaurant industry is to focus more globally, and for a chain like this, a premium sandwich category, it is important to expand internationally," he said. 

The cost of a used truck can be as little as about $20,000, but opening a small restaurant can easily cost $400,000, while larger eateries can run into the millions, said Tom Miner, a principal with research firm Technomic Inc.

While 47 percent of Americans say they want more healthy options at restaurants, only 23 percent order those foods, according to a 2010 survey by food research firm Technomic.

So far this year, five chains with at least 100 locations each have filed for bankruptcy protection, according to research firm Technomic. Last year, that number was two. In 2009, it was one.

 Johnsonville also does a nice job advertising to support its brand, said Gary Karp, executive vice president at Technomic Inc., a Chicago food industry consulting firm.

"Restaurants have a life cycle, and Friendly's has hit it," said industry analyst Ron Paul, president of Technomic Inc. in Chicago. "I don't think there is any marketing fix when you are a model of a restaurant that went out of style."

''Where Chili's and Applebee's may have been new and hot in the '90s, now they have become more traditional,'' said Darren Tristano, an executive vice president of Technomic, a restaurant consulting and market research business.

Popular so-called fast casual chains like Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill tend to have more healthful menus and better ambience than typical fast-food chains -- and lower prices than most sit-down restaurants. Technomic recently calculated that a meal of chips and salsa, chicken tacos and a soft drink costs $9.86 at Chipotle and $16.72 (including a 15 percent tip) at Chili's, a difference of 70 percent.

At $18.4 billion annually, the Asian dining segment in the U.S. is just an eyelash less than the Mexican segment, reports research firm Technomic.

A recent survey by Technomic, a leading fact-based consulting and research firm serving the food industry, found that the fast food industry accounts for $25 billion or about 60 per cent of all restaurant sales in Canada. The survey also found that North American burger consumption has grown considerably since 2009, with nearly half of consumers reporting indulging in a burger at least once a week compared with 38 per cent two years ago.

"It's a chain that's in trouble and needs to find a way to turn itself around," said Ron Paul, president of Chicago-based Technomic. "It's facing competition from the Paneras of the world and Corner Bakery and, to some extent because they're focused on sandwiches, Subway."

He said that Cosi once had an edge by way of its upscale decor, but the rise of Panera has "blunted that somewhat." Paul added that Cosi has been closing some stores, while competitors have been growing. The chain had 145 locations in 2008, according to the company site, but had 141 as of its most recent earnings report.

"Fast-food restaurants aren't set up to be bars," said David Henkes, who advises restaurants on alcohol sales at the consulting firm Technomic. "Based upon the amount of sales that most restaurants would get from alcohol, it's just not feasible for most restaurants to do it."

U.S. sales for the top 75 limited-service burger chains rose 1.6% in 2010 to more than $65 billion, according to Technomic. Of those top 75, more than half are fast casual, but they only account for 2.6% of the sales. That's partly because of McDonald's, whose 2010 U.S. sales accounted for nearly half of that $65 billion. The top three burger chains account for nearly 75% of fast-food and fast-casual burger chains' U.S sales.

Technomic reports that their presence on chain menus jumped a whopping 80 percent between 2008 and 2010. While flatbread has never gone out of style, the current boom has a distinctly 21st century vibe, as the product shows up across the menu and around the clock.

Illustrating the importance of cleanliness at the table, the most recent Technomic Inc. Consumer Restaurant Brand Metrics research saw respondents rank dish and silverware cleanliness as the second-most-important attribute out of nine under the "unit appearance and atmosphere" category for both the full-service and fast-casual segments. Consumers ranked order accuracy as the most important "convenience" category attribute for both the full-service and fast-casual segments, Technomic said.

As one of the leaders in the development of the bakery-cafe segment, Panera Bread's Ron Shaich has long been recognized by his industry peers as a genuine pioneer.

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Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., called Shaich a "visionary" and praised his ability to always look forward.

"His attitude toward continuous improvement in [Panera Bread] keeps the chain fresh, innovative, by challenging [the brand] to find a better way to meet cons mer needs and demands," he said.

The Dotmenu acquisition gives GrubHub broader geographical reach and a foothold among college students. This is a smart strategy because getting "more involved at the college level will create loyalty among students, who do dine at home more than Boomers" and other generations, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based Technomic, a restaurant industry consultancy. "They're a strong driver of future sales."

Sixty-two percent of college and university students purchase food or beverages from on-campus food service at least once a week, and 20% do so at least once a day, according to the report by Technomic, a Chicago-based food industry research firm. The nation's 16 million college and university students command more than $300 billion in spending power, the report says.

Last year, McDonald's had 49.5 percent of the fast-food burger market in the U.S, up from 41.6 percent in 2002, according to research firm Technomic. During the same period, Wendy's share fell to 12.8 percent from 14 percent. Burger King's fell to 13.3 percent from 17 percent.

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Analysts have mixed views on whether the burger will be a recipe for success. Bob Goldin, an executive vice president at Technomic, said the move comes late as Wendy's has so much catching up to do with competitors. "It probably would have been a bigger deal if it had happened a lot sooner," he said. 

Chicago-based Technomic Inc. estimates Rubio's 2010 sales at $191.8 million, compared with the $188.7 the business reported in its 2009 annual report. Chasing Rubio's is Santa Ana-based Wahoo's Fish Taco, with 60 stores and an estimated $63.5 million in sales, according to Technomic. 

"The best way to boil a frog is to put it in cold water and slowly turn up the heat," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant industry consultancy. Consumers are more likely to have a negative reaction to significant changes made quickly, he said.

Regardless of which store shoppers chose, they'll likely pay more for items that Americans don't normally consider luxury goods: Beef, pork and chicken, said Gary Karp, executive vice president of the market researcher Technomic Inc.

"My advice to shoppers: Constantly re-evaluate your options," Karp said. "That means everything from store brands to meal planning." Pasta prices have gone up, Karp said, but spaghetti remains an economical option. "If you like chicken, try skewers, or chicken meatballs. There are different ways to at least smooth out the cost curve."

The pier needs to attract more of the local element that can afford upscale dining and shopping, says Darren Tristano, executive vice-president of Chicago food industry consultant Technomic Inc.

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Restaurants pay rent equal to about 10% of sales, plus an additional fee based on a percentage of sales. Mr. Tristano says thats more than most restaurants pay elsewhere in the city, meaning Navy Pier eateries need anywhere from 20% to 40% more revenue to compensate.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant industry consultancy, said fine-dining steakhouses are bouncing back faster than their lower-priced counterparts "because affluent consumers are hitting better employment numbers than the lower middle class."

Also, at some finer steakhouses, Tristano said, expense accounts account for 70 percent or more of sales.

Darden's experience also will help the company select the best places to grow, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic. "Most markets they are going into, they exist there (already)," Tristano said. "They understand the market. It's not new to them. It's just new to the brand."

David Henkes, a vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant industry consultancy, said the new Beam has been subject of takeover rumors, specifically that it could be snapped up by such as Diageo or Pernod Ricard.

The number of restaurants offering sweet potatoes has grown 14% in the last three years, according to a survey of 704 restaurant menus conducted by Chicago-based market research firm Technomic Inc. Much of that increase comes from restaurants featuring sweet potato fries.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm, said Elevation Burger may have an uphill battle to build market share.

"From looking at history, there seems to be opportunities for three major chains in the better-burger market," said Tristano, in referring to these fast-casual, gourmet burger chains such as Smashburger, Five Guys, Elevation Burger, and others.

He pointed out that McDonald's fast food holds roughly half of the $65 billion burger market, followed by Burger King and Wendy's. In the gourmet burger niche, the leader is Five Guys with an estimated $700 million in sales, followed by Smashburger with $69 million, The Counter with $49 million, and Elevation with $8 million, according to figures provided by Tristano.

Chick-fil-A's 2010 sales were up 11.4 percent from the prior year. Technomic Executive Vice President Darren Tristano said the chicken purveyor has long been established in the Southeast and parts of the Midwest, and in recent years has been growing its presence in large urban markets including Chicago and Southern California.

Based on its sales history, Tristano said Chick-fil-A is on track to possibly surpass KFC in sales within the next three or four years.

Americans love eating burgers -- to the tune of 14 billion a year, according to a 2009 survey by Technomic Information Services. 

"It's just not in the DNA of a traditional QSR to sell alcohol," said David Henkes, vice president of Technomic and head of the on-premise beverage alcohol practice for the Chicago-based research firm. "But I think chains are recognizing that there is potential there for some incremental revenue, so they are taking some baby steps to see if it is possible."

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"For a quick-service restaurant, where it represents maybe 1 percent or 2 percent of sales, the benefits of selling it don't outweigh the costs," Henkes said. "So I would certainly not say we would see alcohol become a standard item on most QSR menus."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based research firm Technomic Inc., agreed that there are opportunities for a Mediterranean-food chain, but said it would be premature to forecast the category growing to the size of fast-casual Mexican.

"It's got options because the category is very underpenetrated, but there's still a good-sized independent market in areas where that food is prominent," Tristano said. "Vegetarian is growing, but consumers haven't developed the huge appetite or [craving] yet for falafel and some other Mediterranean foods.... There's no reason to think you can't see growth in the segment, but I don't know if we'll see a concept doing $2 billion a year in the next 15 years."

A report published this year from Chicago-based research firm Technomic found that daily-deal customers have the potential to become loyal, paying customers. Of restaurant-goers who had used a group-buying coupon, two-thirds told Technomic they later returned to the same restaurant without being given a discount. Another 83 percent recommended that eatery to a friend or family member. The coupons also spurred trial. Forty-eight percent of respondents used them at restaurants they had never visited, and 25 percent redeemed them at restaurants they'd only been to once.

Today, Pinkberry is the country's second-largest frozen yogurt chain by sales, but it is catching up to number-one TCBY. Pinkberry's sales grew to $109 million in 2010, up slightly from 2009, as the chain added 19 stores, according to food industry research firm Technomic Inc. During the same period, TCBY's sales fell 14.3 percent to $120 million, and the company shuttered 100 locations.

"Pinkberry has the advantage of being a new kid on the block," said Technomic president Ron Paul. "It is still a special place to go, and celebrity PR has helped."

"Whatever they are doing isn't working, so it's time to do something different," said Bob Goldin, analyst at Chicago-based food consultancy Technomic. "There is a sense of urgency to get back on their feet." 

"Call it the Whole Foods effect," says Ron Paul, president of consulting firm Technomic. Target's bragging about fresh food, he notes. 7-Eleven's touting it. And Subway's made billions from that premise. "Fresh is it," Paul says.

Chicago-based research company Technomic said fish tacos on U.S. restaurant menus rose 22.5 percent in the first half of 2010.

Darren Tristano, executive vice-president of Chicago-based restaurant consultancy Technomic Inc., believes the concept can work in major cities. He says it falls in the sweet spot between casual and white-tablecloth restaurants in River North. Most bottles cost $15 to $20, and most entrees are less than $25.

Making their own wine is a positive differentiator, Mr. Tristano says. The challenge is: How will they stand out beyond the winery aspect? What is the food item theyll be known for?

"The whole issue of getting food in and out of the airport is a logistical challenge compared to the street," said Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a Chicago-based food industry consulting firm.

In a recent study by Technomic, which tracks the food industry, 91% of consumers familiar with food trucks say they view them as no passing fad. Kevin Higar, the firm's director of consulting and research, spent three months earlier this year doing at-the-window-and-into-the-stomach investigating, sampling the savories and sweets from more than 100 trucks in nine cities at $6 to $8 a plate, basket or bowl. He estimates that the trend has rumbled into 30 to 35 cities, parking itself on college campuses and at music festivals, nightclubs, wedding receptions, farmers markets and, in an example of how meta the mobile mangia landscape has become, food truck meet-ups, which might feature a dozen of the vehicles.

Due to price increases across the board - from commodities to gas - consumers understand that operators are forced to raise their food prices, says Sara Monnette, director of consumer research, Technomic Inc., based in Chicago.

"They don't blame operators because dishes are more expensive," she says. "But it's hard to say at this point if demand for bacon will decrease if prices continue to rise."

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So, what are the most popular meals for bacon lovers? Pork - in particular bacon - is certainly most popular at breakfast, according to Technomic's "2011 Center of the Plate: Beef & Pork Consumer Trend Report." Several of the most widely accepted and well-established types of pork such as bacon and sausage are, understandably, eaten primarily for breakfast. 

"The research that we've done is that operators more than ever are focused on bottom line profitability, and a lot of that is around reducing waste and improving yield," says David Henkes, vice president at Technomic Inc., Chicago. "A portion control product is really going to be something that helps them out by doing just that by reducing waste and improving yield."

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With restaurant operators watching their bottom lines coupled with operators trying to lower calorie counts, smaller serving sizes are going to be a growing trend in foodservice, he adds. "Smaller portions are going to be something that consumers are faced with - whether they want them or not is another story - but I think that it's going to be something increasingly common on menus," Henkes says. 

"Traditional burger chains have done a very poor job of focusing on burgers - as surprising as that may sound," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of food consulting group Technomic. "McDonald's, Burger King and Wendy's have expanded breakfast, gone into salads, focused on kids' meals and now beverage."

That's left room for others to take up the slack by providing higher-quality, better-tasting burgers, he said.

The chain has since grown to about 750 restaurants, including one in Ontario that opened in May, marking Buffalo Wild Wings' first international expansion.

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Its revenue rose 14 percent last year, when U.S. revenue fell at Applebee's, Chili's and Ruby Tuesday, according to Technomic, a restaurant industry research firm.

In 2010, McDonald's accounted for 9 percent of U.S. restaurant sales, according to Technomic. Last year, its U.S. revenue rose 4.4 percent, while U.S. revenue fell at Burger King, Wendy's, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Arby's, Sonic and Jack in the Box, Technomic said.

Haliburton's move is unusual because the sluggish economy has convinced most of the companies in the food service business that this is not the time to expand. Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm, said a few of the large companies, such as Sysco, are growing, but those are exceptions.

"It's very, very competitive," Paul said. "The margins are still compressed, and most companies are still struggling to get back to where they were."

A survey out this week by the market research firm Technomic Inc. found that 91 percent of folks familiar with food trucks say the trend is here to stay. The biggest reason nonusers of food trucks cited for not frequenting a mobile cart was hesitation over buying food from a vehicle. Certainly food safety and proper permitting are big concerns.

Americans love eating burgers - to the tune of 14 billion a year, according to a 2009 survey by Technomic Information Services.

Competition from fast-casual chains such as Chipotle and Panera is one reason that fast-food companies are undergoing such extensive redesign efforts, said Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant industry consultancy.

Chipotle and Panera offer a better decor, which gives consumers the perception of higher-quality food, he said.

According to foodservice consultancy Technomic, consumers are also being driven to excess by cultural moralizing over nutrition. That is, as expanding waistlines make more headlines (in Canada, 62 per cent of people are considered overweight, with a quarter qualifying as obese), proselytizing over healthy eating has led many folks to do the opposite.

"Most consumers, when polled, say they follow their 'own diet.' That could mean that they're good Monday through Friday, and then on Saturday and Sunday say, 'To hell with it!'" says Ron Paul, president of Technomic. "They're rejecting the food police, in effect."

When the chain introduces dishes with a twist, some customers may be "looking at it like, what is that? I'm not sure I want that," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based restaurant research firm Technomic. "Some of the styles, the names, the gourmet ingredients may be confusing."

Even as the popularity of craft beers rises, nearly half of all beer consumed away from home is from major domestic brands, Chicago-based research firm Technomic said in a 2010 report.

According to Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm, Pinkberry's average check is $7.15, while Red Mango's is $6.50. By comparison, Technomic Vice President Darren Tristano said, a trip to Baskin-Robbins or a smoothie from McDonald's likely would cost less than $3 for one person. A frappuccino or another similar item from Starbucks might cost between $3.50 and $5, he said.

Technomic, a Chicago food industry research firm, found that many "daily deals," such as Groupon, were bringing in new customers, and a majority would later return without coupons and recommend it to their family or friends. Many also are posting reviews of the restaurant on Yelp, Zagat survey or Facebook pages, further promoting the operation.

Bakery cafes, such as Panera, continue to lead in these "value beyond low prices" promotions. But Technomic said they had been joined by such "better burger" operations as Smashburger and Five Guys Burgers and Fries and such big-portion Tex-Mex franchises as Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Taking the IHOP brand overseas presents huge opportunities in a market that is relatively untapped, said Joe Pawlak, vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based research firm specializing in food retail trends.

"Looking at countries like Dubai, that are such a luxury resort area with a lot of international travelers, it makes very good sense to expand," he said.

Sales at full-service restaurants - which include casual-dining chains such as Chili's and Applebee's - fell 1.3 percent to $166 billion last year, compared with a 6 percent rise for fast-casual chains such as Five Guys, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Panera Bread, says researcher Technomic Inc.

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When consumers began eating out less, casual dining became "plagued with oversaturation," said Darren Tristano, an executive vice president with Chicago-based Technomic.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a restaurant consulting firm in Chicago, agreed that Seacrets had the right kind of charm and quirkiness that could stand out in a market. But he said the requirement for a waterfront location could pose a problem for some potential investors.

I think it will be easy enough to replicate the Seacrets model, Tristano said. But the success factor is not a sure thing. Properties near water, whether it's ocean or lake, are going to come with higher rent and property costs and that can make it tough for a franchisee.

According to Chicago-based Technomic Inc.'s 2011 Top Fast-Casual Chain Restaurant Report, the foodservice segment outpaced the rest of the restaurant industry in 2010, with the top 100 chains growing 6 percent to nearly $18.9 billion.

The total units grew 3.9 percent, which was slower than last year, but faster than other dining segments, according to the report. Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, says the food industry consulting firm predicts fast-casual restaurants will grow at a rate of 4.5 percent and continue to be strong in growth and expansion at a time when the rest of the industry is contracting. He says limited services and traditional quick services are at about 1.6 percent growth and behind that are fine dining, casual dining and midscale restaurants.

In a tough economy, the move towards alcohol is a way to compete with casual dining and can help boost typically slow evening business, says Ron Paul, president at Technomic, a restaurant consulting firm. "For consumers, it's basically about having it your way even if it's having a beer with your burger."

According to Chicago-based market research firm Technomic, the number of better-burger units grew 21 percent between 2008 and 2009, helping sales grow 18 percent in the same period.

Research firm Technomic Inc. recently conducted a study that found a growing demand for poultry on breakfast menus--as illustrated by IHOP's rollout of chicken and waffles.

Erik Thoresen, director of research for Chicago-based food industry research firm Technomic Inc., said that, for the most part, the assertion that coupons can drive repeat business is true.

A recent study conducted by Technomic found that 48 percent of daily deal buyers purchased a voucher for a restaurant they had not previously visited, and 67 percent of customers returned to the same restaurant without a coupon.

"One of the things we were asking last year was whether this is a fad and whether a restaurant would get a long-term benefit from this kind of program," Thoresen said. "Our initial hypothesis was no, but the outcome was different than we thought." Thoresen said restaurants that re-engaged with a daily online coupon deal often changed the terms of the deal to make them a little less painful to their bottom lines.

"McDonalds has been shifting their efforts toward the suburban locations, which will likely have a bigger impact to sales volumes vs. the downtown locations," says Darren Tristano, executive vice-president of Chicago-based restaurant consultant Technomic Inc.

 A Technomic Inc. study in 2010 showed 55 percent of consumers say they snack at least once a day, while 21 percent of consumers say they are snacking more than they did two years ago.

Burger King has been advertising its Whopper--an item not found on its value menu, though the Whopper Jr. is. And according to a Miami Herald article from May, the company will do away with the steady stream of $1 value promotions. "Putting marketing against their core product is the smartest thing theyve done in a long time," said Darren Tristano, exec VP at Technomic.

"Discounting is kind of like an addiction," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Chicago-based restaurant research firm Technomic. "Once you start, it's kind of hard to stop."

Alcohol sales at restaurants and bars are creeping up, too - they are predicted to grow about 2 percent this year, according to Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based bar-industry research firm.

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Lot18, a sort of eBay for wine connoisseurs, has been the talk of the industry for several months.

According to Nightclub & Bar Magazine and the food service industry research and consulting firm Technomic Inc., which produce an annual list of the nation's leading nightclubs, bars and lounges, Vegas nightclubs account for 12 of the top 20. The survey reported that XS, at the Encore hotel and No. 1 on its list, had nearly $60 million in revenue in 2010. That's not to mention Vegas' thriving pool party scene, which also traffics in the popularity of DJs and house music.

 A gold rush-turned-bust in the 1980s and 1990s saw brands such as TCBY and I Can't Believe It's Yogurt, launched by two Dallas natives, mushroom into hundreds of stores.

As recently as 2001, TCBY had more than 1,777 stores, according to Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based research firm. Now TCBY has fewer than 500 stores, though it plans to add up to 10 D-FW locations in the next 18 months. I Can't Believe It's Yogurt, meanwhile, has been snapped up by the Canadian firm that operates the Yogen Fruz chain.

"When you could get Krispy Kreme at the supermarket, the gas station, the seed store, the warehouse club, it really wasn't special to go to the restaurant to get one that might be more fresh," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, a Chicago-based consulting and research firm for the foodservice industry. "They grew too quickly and, as a result, lost that cultlike feel."

A Dole spokesperson said the Fruit Crisps contain a "full serving" of fruit, whole grain oats and 40% of the recommended daily allowance of Vitamin C.

**

She cited a Technomic study that claims over 50% of US consumers snack at least once a day, 21% snack more frequently and 35% choose healthier options than they did two years ago.

Wingstop serves up everything from mild- to "atomic" seasoned chicken that is geared to Latinos, college students and an affluent crowd that has tired of takeout pizza, according to Darren Tristano, a restaurant analyst with Technomic Inc. in Chicago.

"If you look at the trend in (chicken) wings, it's been around for while, but is heating up again. These chains (Buffalo Wild Wings Grill & Bar, Popeyes, Church's Chicken and KFC) are expanding more quickly in the fast-casual category versus full-service," Tristano said.

Last year, Chick-fil-A's sales grew 11.4 percent to $3.85 billion, according to Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm. Chick-fil-A has 1,564 locations, all funded by cash on hand. The average restaurant posts about $3 million in sales each year, or more than an average McDonald's, and that's with fewer days each year because Chick-fil-A is closed on Sundays for religious reasons.

Joe Pawlak, an analyst with Technomic, a restaurant consulting and research firm in Chicago, said the Freestyle fountains are not only increasing beverage sales, but restaurants that install the machines are seeing food sales increase, as well.

"It's driving people to come into the restaurants that have them, and more frequently," he said. "It's been kind of a big winner so far."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant consultancy, said interest in restaurants appears to be increasing.

"The market seems to be very ripe for private equity because there are a lot of underperforming companies that have continued to underperform over 31/2 or four years of recession and economic downturn," he said.

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Tristano said Corner Bakery is well-positioned in two hot areas of the restaurant industry -- bakery and fast-casual dining -- but its biggest challenge is rival Panera Bread. The St. Louis-based bakery chain is more than 10 times the size of Corner Bakery, with 1,500 U.S. locations.

Together, Wendy's and Arby's make the No. 2 chain restaurant by U.S. revenue, behind McDonald's, according to Technomic, a food industry research firm. Counted separately, Wendy's falls behind Subway, Starbucks and Burger King to No. 5. Arby's is No. 16.

93 percent of those surveyed in Technomic's "Consumer Restaurant Brand Metrics" study ranked dish, glass and cutlery cleanliness as No. 1 in importance in overall restaurant selection, tying with food taste.

In a recent survey from restaurant-research firm Technomic, 62 percent of consumers said prices at their favorite eateries went up in the past three months. And almost a third said portion sizes have shrunk.

Technomic, a research and consulting firm focused on the restaurant industry, has research data on Godfather's going back to the 1970s. At PolitiFact's request, vice president Darren Tristano examined the revenues and franchise numbers for Godfather's during the time Cain headed it, from 1986 to 1995.

It's not possible to determine profitability from those numbers, but they do show Godfather's place in the market, particularly in comparison with its competitors.

"It's really hard from that period to find a strong positive or a strong negative. It's more like 'steady the course,'" Tristano said. 

More than 60 percent of customers believe that restaurant prices have increased in the past three months, and 32 percent said portions have shrunk, according to Technomic. The Chicago-based research firm is projecting a 2.5 percent increase in menu prices industrywide this year, fueled in part by rising commodities prices.

"The rapid rise in gas prices ... has raised consumer sensitivity to price increases in grocery stores and restaurants," said Bob Goldin, executive vice president of Technomic. Facing higher gas prices, "they are very likely to reduce their spending on restaurant meals and increase their reliance on coupons and deals."

"The idea of taking an old brand and reinventing it can be easier to do than re-creating it from scratch," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of restaurant-research company Technomic. "I think there's this nostalgia around certain brands."

Technomic, a Chicago research firm, forecast that alcohol sales at restaurants and bars would grow 1.9 percent in 2011, compared with sales in 2010.

Business and industry (B&I) foodservice sales, however, underperformed vending in 2010. Technomic, a research firm which tracks foodservice industry sales, reported that B&I foodservice suffered a 4.6 percentage point sales loss in 2010. This loss was less than half the 10-point loss reported for this segment in 2009.

Proponents of the craft beer legislation say giving fledgling brewers the right to self-distribute their products likely will foster new brews and protects the state's two smallest beer-makers from being squeezed out of the market. David Henkes, vice president at Chicago-based Technomic, said the bill isn't just "good news for the small craft brewers in the state."

"It's a win for consumers as well, who are looking for increased variety in restaurants, bars and pubs."

Customers are starting to return to its stores, but it's a trickle, with same-store sales up 0.8% over the second quarter of 2010. "They need to find a way to differentiate themselves," said Darren Tristano, restaurant analyst for the research firm Technomic Inc. "If you think of Jack in the Box, I'm not sure what you think of anymore."

"It's an improving picture, but it's a long ways away from where we used to be," Ron Paul, president of Technomic, said during a presentation at the group's Growth Chain Conference last week, intended as a preview for the four-day restaurant show that ends Tuesday. "It's going to take us a while to get back."

Restaurant industry sales fell 3 percent, to $343 billion, in 2009, the worst decline in a generation. Paul noted that despite the 2010 gain and expected increase this year, the industry still is below the 2008 peak of $354 billion.

Despite an improving economy, the sector is continuing to suffer because a number of disquieting factors persist, Paul said, including high unemployment and higher prices at grocery stores and the gas pump.

According to Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., Rubio's competes in a fast-casual restaurant category - with meals averaging about $8 to $10 - that includes 20 large regional and national chains serving up Mexican-style food. That segment tallied more than $4.2 billion in U.S. sales during 2010, up 9 percent from the prior year.

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Technomic reports that Rubio's had just over $191.8 million in 2010 sales, on par with 2009, placing it seventh nationwide in its category.

Darren Tristano, an executive vice president with Technomic, said Rubio's generally has held up well in sales, despite recent inroads by fast-growing national competitors such as Chipotle, Qdoba and smaller regional rivals including Wahoo's Fish Taco, which is based in Santa Ana.

McDonald's has reason to watch chains like Panera Bread. The so-called fast casual restaurant segment continues to outpace the industry as a whole, with the top 100 chains growing 6 percent to nearly $18.9 billion in sales, according to market tracker Technomic.

"Panera has really led the way in terms of bakery-cafe," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at research firm Technomic in Chicago. "They have done a tremendous job of bringing a fast-casual, morning-lunch concept to America's suburbia, and more urban locations with a pretty effective catering program.

"What they have been able to do is to really leap past a lot of the concepts, like Einstein's and others that have been traditionally strong in the breakfast daypart," Tristano said. "It has allowed them to be a category giant when it comes to the bakery-cafe segment, as well as within fast casual."

"Historically the other fast feeders have had a huge head-start. But if you look at which segments have grown, this has been consistently growing at a small rate," said Mary Chapman, director-product innovation at Technomic, which finds that last year fast-food and fast-casual Asian chain sales among the top 500 grew 9.3%.

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According to a recent Technomic report on the Asian category, the number of consumers between 2008 and 2010 who said they would be very likely to order a Chinese-style beef dish jumped from 30% to 46%. "Asian's got a high flavor profile--consumers want more interesting flavors," said Ms. Chapman.

Restaurants normally try to avoid raising prices so they don't lose business to competitors, said Bob Goldin, executive vice president for restaurant consultancy Technomic Inc. in Chicago.

"The real challenge for restaurants is they're in a position right now where it's very difficult to raise menu prices because of the economy," Goldin said. "The consumer is very value- and price- conscious."

In its most recent consumer behavior survey, food industry research firm Technomic Inc. found 84 percent of consumers thought that grocery prices had risen in the past three months, and 62 percent thought restaurant prices had climbed.

And they think they're getting less in the bargain. Half said packaged food sizes had gotten smaller, and almost a third thought restaurants were skimping on portions.

Bob Goldin , executive vice president of Technomic, said the surge in gasoline prices had raised sensitivity to price hikes. 

A total of 1,133 craft brews appeared on the menus of 169 of the top 250 beverage-selling chains in 2010, up from 803 beers and 154 chains in 2008, according to industry consultant Technomic.

Despite the more than 74,100 pizza restaurants in the United States, there is still room for growth, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, a Chicago research firm that tracks the industry.

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"With more people sitting home in front of their big-screen TVs, why not eat more pizza?" he said. "There still seems to be continued, increasing demand."

"It is a very fast-growing segment of the industry," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based food industry consultancy Technomic Inc. "Men are looking for a place they can be treated with comfort, and they're finding it here."

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The segment is expected to reach $1.4 billion in sales this year, according to Tristano, with Hooters accounting for about $885 million at its 385 U.S. restaurants. The privately held company was doing about $1 billion in annual revenue before the recession, during which it shed some 15 underperforming locations, according to Tristano.

Dunkin' Donuts, with about 6,900 shops nationwide, lags behind rival Starbucks with its 11,158 stores across the country, according to Technomic, a Chicago research firm.

"The IPO is going to provide them with more capital to focus on growth and expansion," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at restaurant consultancy Technomic Inc. "The less debt you have, ... the more money that can flow back into the business."

**

Tristano said he expects the familiarity of the Dunkin' Donuts brand will attract retail investors to the stock. "There's no reason to think consumers won't want to invest in a brand like this that (many) people have grown up with," he said.

"They've done a nice job creating complementary food offerings to go along with their beverages," said Darren Tristano, exec VP at Technomic, referring to the company's menus expansions with breakfast sandwiches and the surprise hit oatmeal. "They've added products that are healthier with less artificial flavors, and more emphasis toward natural or organic food. They've really been able to increase price on a premium-coffee beverage that is on par with what younger consumers are looking for."

U.S. restaurant and bar alcohol sales are projected to grow 1.9 percent in 2011, versus 0.4 percent in 2010, according to Technomic.

The Chicago-based research firm predicted last December that cocktails would see the greatest sales growth, rising 2.3 percent in 2011, compared with 0.7 percent growth in 2010. Meanwhile, beer sales, which were flat in 2010, are expected to climb by 1.6 percent this year, supported by strength among craft and microbrew products. Wine sales are expected to grow 1.4 percent in 2011, compared with 0.8 percent in 2010.

In the wild, the lionfish is often an unwelcome intruder.

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Still, Darren Tristano, executive vice president of food industry research and consulting firm Technomic, was skeptical of how popular the fish would be with the public. Traditional Fisheries' cost per pound puts it in line with retail prices for Chilean sea bass or salmon. Tristano said the lionfish story alone is not enough to have dramatic appeal to consumers, "unless the flavor, quality and freshness is unique enough to differentiate it from other, more appealing types of fish."

Starbucks now ranks behind only No. 1 McDonald's and runner-up Subway, according to research firm Technomic's just-released listing of America's top 500 restaurant chains in total 2010 U.S. sales.

**

"Starbucks keeps gaining and gaining," says Ron Paul, president of Technomic. "Carrying a Starbucks cup in your hand says something about you as a person."

Both design and service format differentiate Mezze from the sea of existing Mediterranean restaurants, a segment of the restaurant business with a lot of growth potential, said Lauren Edwards, editor of a study of Mediterranean restaurant chains for Chicago-based industry research group Technomic.

Mediterranean food appeals to consumers looking for healthier dining options, because of its focus on whole grains, fruits and vegetables, as well as emphasis on small plates, she said. "Mediterranean fare also boasts bold and distinct flavor profiles that customers cannot easily recreate themselves."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant consultancy, said sales at fine- and casual-dining restaurants lagged the industry in the recession, though fine dining has bounced back recently with the return of more-affluent customers and expense-account lunches.

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Tristano said Francesca's faces several hurdles.

"There are challenges and pressures chains face as they grow, and they don't necessarily experience those challenges until they've grown," he said, pointing to food quality, service and finding the right managers. In addition, he said, "taking what works in one region into another isn't always going to work. A lot of times there's evolution and adaptation of the concept to get it right in the local market."

One restaurant industry analyst believes Sizzler is heading in the right direction on its expansion and could capitalize on growth in Latino populations in its core California market, where it has 98 of its 180 eateries. Roughly 30 of its stores are company-owned.

"Given its concept and long history in California, and very deep understanding of the Hispanic market, they are looking around at Souplantation and Sweet Tomatoes, and saying this is a good time to start expanding," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm.

"During the recession, their offering has bubbled up to the top in terms of value," he said. "They've likely done better than other chains during the recession. The timing appears to be good."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a restaurant consultancy, said the fates of french fries and the economy are linked.

"As America becomes smarter and more frugal - and even post-recession, these behaviors are continuing - we're focusing less on sides and more on main courses and beverages," he said. "The dollar drink is a 'must have'; McDoubles for a dollar is a must. When you're looking at fries for $1.29 to $2, it's likely going to be left behind in many purchases."

A recent Technomic survey found that 46 percent of consumers are cutting back on restaurant meals at full-service restaurants, and 42 percent are cutting meals at fast-food restaurants because of rising gas prices.

Entrepreneurs typically are risk takers who bet on their dreams. Such is the case for three friends who recently opened The Maharaja, a casual but elegant restaurant in the heart of Harvard Square in Cambridge, Mass.

Authenticity should serve the group well, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at research firm Technomic in Chicago.

"Consumers today like authenticity," he said. "Indian is really an untapped niche and many outlets are independent restaurants. The challenge is to use the decor, ambience and food to lure Indians and mainstream diners alike."

Nationwide doughnut sales rose 4.5% last year to $7.7 billion, according to Chicago-based food industry tracker Technomic Inc. Low-priced chains Dunkin Donuts of Canton, Mass., and Winston-Salem, N.C.-based Krispy Kreme still dominate the market, with a combined 79% of sales.

According to a 2010 survey conducted by Chicago-based research firm Technomic, cited in a recent report from the Center for Hospitality Research at Cornell University, 43 percent of respondents had ordered from a restaurant online, and 23 percent had ordered food via text message. By age cohort, 60 percent of respondents between age 18 and age 34 had used online ordering, compared with only 35 percent for respondents 35 and older.

"It's not that complicated," says Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a restaurant consultancy. "It's all about getting feet in the door."

Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant industry consultancy, described the redefining of a McJob as a tall order.

While Mr. Paul said the chain "has a great story to tell" of the benefits it offers that many competitors don't, and the opportunities to move into management, "they still don't have the image of a Starbucks."

"McDonalds is considered to be a fast-food restaurant. It's going to be tough for them to differentiate themselves from the other fast-food restaurants," he said, adding that smaller chains, including Chick-fil-A and Panda Express, have been building credibility with young people in recent years as good places to work because of their benefits.

The company is among the top 100 limited-service sandwich chains in the U.S., according to Technomic, a Chicago restaurant- and food-research group.

Three fast food franchises - Arby's, A&W Restaurants, and Long John Silver's - are all for sale at the same time.

"These three franchises on sale have a common theme," says Ron Paul, not your next president but CEO of the restaurant consulting firm Technomic. "They have been underperforming for a number of years. They are in the low-to-no-growth category." So who's going to buy slow-moving fast food franchises? "They'll find a buyer," Paul predicts. "Warren Buffett bought Dairy Queen because it's a great cash producer, and these can be too. It's just a matter of price."

According to Technomic, a Chicago-based consulting and research firm that tracks consumer and food-service-industry trends, in 2009 Americans spent almost $13.5 billion in family-style, casual-dining and fine-dining restaurants that serve steak as the primary cuisine. Contrast that to 1995, when restaurant-goers spent a comparatively paltry $5.7 billion at such eateries.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Chicago-based consulting firm Technomic, said cost increases rippling through the supply chain due in part to fuel inflation would hurt operators not only from a commodity price standpoint, but also in the erosion of their ability to take price hikes to cover their margins.

"The last two to three years, chains have taken slight to moderate price increases," Tristano said, "and with all the couponing, it has hurt what they're able to sell in terms of price point.

Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a Chicago-based restaurant industry consultancy, described the redefining of a McJob as a tall order. While Paul said the chain "has a great story to tell" of the benefits it offers, and the opportunities to move into management, "they still don't have the image of a Starbucks."

"McDonalds is considered to be a fast-food restaurant. It's going to be tough for them to differentiate themselves from the other fast-food restaurants," he said, adding that smaller chains, including Chick-fil-A and Panda Express, have been building credibility with young people in recent years as good places to work because of their benefits.

After a few lean years in the on-premise channel, analysts are predicting that establishments can expect a rebound in sales for 2011. Among the segments in the channel, alcohol sales at restaurants and bars are forecasted to increase 1.9 percent, according to Technomic Inc., Chicago.

The food and beverage research firm expects spirits-based drinks to see the highest rate of growth at 2.3 percent, while wine is forecasted at 1.4 percent growth and beer sales at 1.6 percent growth. These numbers are coming off of 2010 when alcohol sales were basically flat for on-premise, says David Henkes, vice president at Technomic and head of the firm's on-premise practice.

"Alcohol definitely grew faster than the underlying segments, so we're starting to see a return of consumers not only to the on-premise channel but in general," Henkes says.

Thirty-eight percent of consumers said they would like pizzerias to use more local ingredients, according to industry research group Technomic. "Locally grown and all-natural ingredients add a health-halo attribute to pizza offerings, driving appeal among health-minded consumers for whom nutrition and sustainability are important," said spokeswoman Kelly Weikel.

According to a Technomic Consumer Brand Metrics study conducted last month, 68% of consumers surveyed were aware of the new product, 61% had tried it and out of those 61%, 77% would recommend it.

**

Technomic estimates Wendy's 2010 sales at $8.3 billion, down 0.6% from 2009. That makes it the No. 3 burger chain, with about 13% market share. While that's well behind No. 1 McDonald's 48.2% share, the fries are one more weapon in its arsenal to inch it closer to overtaking Burger King, No. 2 in the category with 13.9%.

Technomic estimates that Burger Kings U.S. sales for 2010 were down 2.5% to $8.7 billion. Comparatively, McDonalds was up 4.4% to $32.4 billion and Wendys was relatively flat, down 0.6% to $8.3 billion.

**

"They've lacked a cohesive strategy of what products are, and what the marketing message is," said Ron Paul, president of Technomic. "Many consumers wouldn't be able to tell you what they're promoting, other than their spokesman. The sales results speak for themselves."

That's what keeps fans returning to seasonal spots despite competitors offering year-round access and trendier concoctions, said Darren Tristano of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based food consulting firm. "Customers have a certain loyalty to some of these old brands they grew up with. They may try others, but they always come back."

"If Morton's were for sale in '07, when they were on an upswing, I'm sure it would have fetched a very nice price," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based food industry consultancy Technomic Inc. "Right now, where the stock price is and where the industry has been, I think this is more of an opportunity for a buyer."

  **

While declining to speculate about specific buyers, Tristano said that the $3.26 billion purchase of Burger King last year by investment firm 3G Capital shows that private equity groups are hungry for downtrodden, publicly traded restaurant chains. He also suggested that other public companies, such as a rival steak chain, might be a logical buyer.

"Absence makes the heart grow fonder," said Mary Chapman, product-innovation director for the Chicago food-service consulting company Technomic, comparing devotees to those of the sporadically offered McRib sandwich. "It gives people something to talk about."

Leading restaurant consulting firm Technomic released sales results of the industry's top 500 chains. The restaurants posted a 1.8 percent annual sales increase in 2010, up more than $4 billion from 2009.

**

Huntington Beach-based BJ's and Irvine-based Yard House ranked No. 4 and No. 5, respectively, on the list. BJ's revenue grew 20 percent to $514 million, while Yard House sales grew 18 percent to $216 million, Technomic said.

"Clearly, the coffee category is very competitive,'' said David Henkes, vice president of restaurant-research company Technomic. "If you pick your niche and that's where you are focused, you have an opportunity there, but it's certainly not an easy road, given what's going on with the economy right now."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm Technomic Inc., said some smaller restaurants are using iPads and similar devices for things such as displaying wine lists, updating menus and promoting in-house specials.

However, he said larger restaurants could face cost-prohibitive issues, including having to deploy more devices for large parties to keep orders flowing during busy periods. Eateries might also need to install battery-charging stations, which could require electrical wiring renovations.

**

Tristano said there is also a demographic chasm to bridge. "You have the younger demographic that is very familiar with the Pad, but you also have older consumers who just aren't as comfortable with that kind of technology."

"The gap between frozen pizza and restaurant pizza is narrowing," said Darren Tristano, exec VP at Technomic, a Chicago food-industry consultancy. 

**

Mr. Tristano credited "more advertising, but more importantly, a broadening of the menu to include sandwiches, desserts and chicken wings," he said. "The broad menu gives consumers more reason to buy from a pizza restaurant."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president with Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm Technomic Inc., noted that until the economy gets fully back on track and consumers are ready to spend again, growth in the restaurant industry will remain muted.

"You're not going to see a lot of new restaurant development in places like California until you start seeing improvement in the employment," Tristano said.

Chicago-based foodservice consulting firm Technomic in late January released "Market Intelligence Report: Seafood," which revealed that 23 percent of consumers it surveyed said their seafood consumption declined during the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; 19 percent of those surveyed said they were still eating less fish four months later.

"While these changes may not be permanent, they have lasted beyond the media's coverage of the spill and are a testament to the strength of that imagery," says Mary Chapman, product innovation director at Technomic.

In general, "the seafood category ... has been in contraction mode, losing sales and shedding units," said a report last month from research firm Technomic. In 2009, the report said sales at America's largest seafood chains declined 5.2 percent compared with 2008 -- much more than the 0.8 percent decrease at major restaurants overall.

Frozen yogurt places supplying creamy and tart, self-serve and behind-the-counter varieties are popping up all over Atlanta. "They seem to be everywhere," said Mary Chapman, director of product innovation at Chicago-based Technomic, a research firm.

**

Tart or "Korean-style" frozen yogurt is purchased at about the same frequency as fried ice cream, according to Technomic. Three-quarters of respondents to a recent survey said they never purchase tart frozen yogurt and never make it at home.

Restaurant analysts say it makes sense for Au Bon Pain to step up its efforts and capture a larger share of the growing bakery market. The bakery cafe category increased about 2.9 percent between 2009 and 2010, while Au Bon Pain had flat sales, according to Ron Paul, presi dent of Technomic. Panera, meanwhile, was up 4.3 percent.

"Better burger" restaurants constitute about 3 percent of a $65 billion burger market in the United States, but their share is growing at about 25 percent each year, according to Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a food-service industry consultant who produced a report earlier this year about the burger market.

**

Across the nation, the market for these eateries has grown as consumers have become more conscious of what they eat. At the same time, the economy has conspired to fuel demand for the better burger, according to Tristano, the food service consultant.

And many people in the tourism industry work for relatively low wages -- something that drives demand for fast food, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of restaurant research firm Technomic. "The demographics of the community is looking for lower-priced food."

The food industry research and consulting firm Technomic estimates that cupcake-only bakeries pulled in $100 million in total sales last year in the United States

"It's growing very fast," says Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic. "But sustaining this trend will be difficult. Especially as people continue to watch what they eat more closely. The challenge for these places will be figuring out how to get people to continue to snack on these very high calorie items."

In a survey of 700 restaurants, the number of menus featuring Angus beef, made mostly of upper choice and prime grades, more than doubled between 2004 and 2010, to 28%, according to restaurant industry research firm Technomic Inc. in Chicago.

Many of the price increases won't be noticed by consumers until later this year. "It could shock consumers when it happens," said Ron Paul of Technomic, a Chicago-based food consulting company.

It is common and advisable for restaurant operators to re-evaluate and refresh the looks of their restaurants every so often, said Bob Goldin , executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago research firm that tracks the restaurant industry. And, he added, restaurants that are fancier with higher prices are especially vulnerable during tough economic times. "There's really a trend toward much, much more casual, lower-priced dining concepts throughout the industry," he said.

"It's sort of like the perfect storm -- Florida, Texas and Mexico all get hit with unseasonably cold weather, which decreased the yields of tomatoes and cucumbers," said Gary Karp (no relation), executive vice president for Technomic, a food industry market-research firm. "It's going to take about 60 days or so before new tomatoes and other replacement products can come to market."

**

But the lack of the red produce might mean the famous BLT -- bacon, lettuce and tomato sandwich -- will temporarily become a BL at some sandwich shops. "Operators are going to have to be very creative," Karp said. 

Dave Henkes, vice president of the Chicago-based food industry research firm Technomic Inc., said the ability of artisan distillers to sell their own spirits helps drive sales. Consumers are more willing to buy a bottle if they are able to sample it first.

Restaurants and bars are a great place to test the market, Henkes said. They are a low-risk environment because an $8 cocktail is a lot less of a risk than a $30 bottle in the eye of the consumer.

Among the top 500 chain restaurants and 100 "high-volume" independent restaurants (including Gibson's, Nobu and The Capital Grille), instances of the word "Wagyu" on menus increased 84 percent from 2008 to 2010, according to Darren Tristano of the food industry consulting firm Technomic.

Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based food industry research firm, has predicted 2011 could bring a four-year high in restaurant sales growth.

The study cited overall economic data and increased sales momentum among many restaurants in the fourth quarter of 2010.

In fact, the number of baked goods -- a category that includes pies -- on restaurant menus nationwide rose from 605 in 2008 to 731 in 2010, according to industry research firm Technomic.

According to data from Chicago-based research firm Technomic, gourmet burger chains were a $1.4 billion category in 2009, up 21 percent in unit count from the year earlier.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based food industry research and consulting firm Technomic Inc., said independent operators of several restaurants often are vulnerable to economic pressures because they dont have the capital necessary to withstand a long-term depression in sales.

Multi-concept operators like Prentice Group are in a much more difficult position, Tristano said. Because when youre in a higher-end position on the independent side, you have a higher cost rent, quality of food and if youre not driving more customers there, you start going into debt and trying to make ends meet.

"It's a niche market," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, a Chicago-based food industry consultancy. He pointed to UFood Grill, a smoothie, wrap, salad and burger chain that opened three Chicago-area locations in recent years. They've all closed.

Tristano said he expects a chain like Lyfe to have trouble reaching 100 locations. And he noted that Lyfe will be competing against fast-casual players like Panera, which has lower prices in most cases.

"Consumers continue to use restaurants as an indulgence," Tristano said. "Nobody wants a better-quality burger. No one can sell soy burgers.''

"You're going to see a different type of product served that's likely going to have less flavor because there's lower fat and lower salt," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of consulting firm Technomic.

Many local shops are outlets of national or large regional chains that are based here, including Plano-based Pizza Hut, Coppell-based CiCi's Pizza and Chuck E. Cheese's in Irving.Pizza Hut is the nation's largest pizza player, CiCi's is sixth and Chuck E. Cheese's is the eighth-largest U.S. chain, according to Technomic Inc., a Chicago research firm.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, the research company, said the growth of wings has been eating into pizza's lock on Super Bowl snacking. "I think we're going to start to see a slight shift ... with more of a share of wings in addition to pizza and pasta," Tristano said. "I think it's going to be a very important component of the mix."

That's a wise move in the ultracompetitive world of restaurants, said Bob Goldin , vice president for Chicago food industry research firm Technomic. Many restaurant chains make it a point to revamp the look of their stores every five to 10 years, he said.

If you don't, he said, "I don't think it's going to put you out of business, but it certainly hurts your competitiveness and appeal."

"Bringing in new leadership and selecting a new advertising agency is what many chains do when they are struggling," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm. "This isn't a situation where management isn't doing a good job. It's very clear that economic conditions are difficult."

With annual sales pushing $7 billion, Taco Bell ranks as the nation's sixth-largest fast-food company, according to 2009 findings from research firm Technomic.

Increasingly, drive-throughs are important to the success of coffee chains, including Starbucks, which has drive-through windows at four of its stand-alone Roanoke Valley shops. Starbucks' drive-throughs generate 50 percent of its total business, with a direct appeal to convenience-minded customers, said Darren Tristano, an executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago food research firm.

But that still doesn't explain why, according to the food industry research firm Technomic, between 2009 and 2010, the number of beet dishes on restaurant menus increased by 16 percent -- and the number of beet salad appetizers increased by a whopping 25 percent.

Possible, but more believable, is that chefs simply began to notice the beet salad working for other chefs, said Patrick Noone, senior director at Technomic. "And they thought about how they could make it work for them."

"The expectation is we're going to have higher commodity costs, and restaurants are going to have to pass along some of those," said Ron Paul, president of Chicago-based Technomic, a restaurant industry consulting firm.

"Consumers are already seeing them in grocery stores, so it's not going to be a surprise." Technomic estimates that prices at restaurants will increase 2.5% to 3% across the board this year.

"People are becoming not only accustomed to eating at home, they're enjoying it," says Darren Tristano, executive vice president of restaurant consulting firm Technomic Inc. "They can sit in front of their 50-inch flat-screens and not have to tip a waiter."

Technomic Inc. noted in a recent report that restaurants featuring Mexican cuisine--the "ethnic" cuisine most associated with spicy food in the United States--enjoyed sales growth even in 2009.

In that report, Mary Chapman, Technomic's director of product innovation, said consumers were "calling for authentic ethnic dining experiences and spicier, more flavorful foods."

Darren Tristano, vice president of Chicago-based food industry research and consulting firm Technomic Inc., said Jets has the right mix of product, quality and value for franchisees. Pizza outside of the Midwest is not very good because overall the quality is very low, Tristano said. As a result, a company with higher quality like Jets is going to have better sales than its competitors in small, local markets.

Tristano pointed to Jets lower franchise costs as the reason behind its increased store count. If you look at pizza franchises and what people are able to invest in them, concepts like Jets benefit because they are not as expensive to get into or build, Tristano said.

"As we headed into the recession, all of the sudden small plates became value plates," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based market research firm. "By allowing consumers to purchase at a smaller price point, we're very much on track with what consumers are looking for."

He also noted that some consumers are concerned about large portions and feeling guilty about taking home leftovers, while others want to avoid paying higher prices for what they consider to be too much food.

Bars are expected to offer continued opportunity in 2011, as well. Alcohol sales at restaurants and bars are projected to rise 1.9 percent this year, a modest increase but still an improvement over the last few years,
according to Chicago-based Technomic Inc.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., said the custom-assembly sales approach, deployed within smaller formats with less overhead, has been gaining popularity in the fast-casual restaurant segment. More offerings like Souplantation's, geared to consumers seeking healthy items, could be on the way.

Tristano said advantages include quicker service, and the ability to serve more consumers who desire takeout fare. Fast-casual chains with custom-assembly formats generally are able to keep meal prices in the $7 to $10 range, with no tipping.

"The consumer can be saving as much as 40 percent from what they would pay at a sit-down, full-service restaurant such as Applebee's," Tristano said.

While healthful items tend to be relegated to the back of many menus for now, that will change as customers age and gravitate increasingly toward diet-friendly options, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Chicago-based Technomic.

"That gives restaurants a great opportunity to build loyalty with current and new customers," he said, in support of a health-oriented barbell strategy. "That choice gives them what they want, when they want it."

Considering the wild success of light beers, the potential for light cocktails is huge, says Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, a restaurant research specialist. More bar and restaurant customers order light than full-calorie beers, Technomic reports.

"Consumers are trying to balance indulgence with healthier lifestyles," Tristano says. "It's very ironic that a chain that found its success through cheesecake is offering lower-calorie beverages."

Technomic, a Chicago-based food industry research group, is forecasting a 1.6 percent increase in restaurant and bar sales this year over 2010, with the biggest increases predicted for bars and taverns.

Chicago-based food service consultant Technomic reports that more than one-third of respondents to a 2009 survey said they entertained at home more often compared with the prior year.

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Hosting dinner parties at home can save money compared with dining out, said Melissa Wilson, a representative for Technomic. "Even though the recession caused [consumers] to cut back in their spending and make trade-offs in their lives, they still wanted to be able to socialize with friends and family, and they just changed where they do it," she said. "They were really enjoying reconnecting with friends at home instead of restaurants."

Technomic President Ron Paul suggested that what little relief is in store is due to boredom. Many people have "frugality fatigue,'' he said, and that's part of the reason for more frequent trips to restaurants, a trend that started in the third quarter of 2009. Restaurant-goers, however, are watching every expense, avoiding tipping or valet parking, Paul said.

Of course, launching an upscale food line with a still-shaky economy is risky. Even in good times, not every chef who tries it succeeds.

But it's the possibility that the product will be a smashing success that draws curious chefs, said Mat Mandeltort, senior consultant for Chicago food industry tracking company Technomic.

"Maybe it is incremental sales and that may be all they're looking for," he said. "They're not looking for international fame. But sometimes it can find them."

Sales at limited-service Mexican restaurant chains, including Taco Bell and a number of higher-priced restaurants, rose 2.7 percent last year, according to a new report from Chicago-based Technomic, a restaurant research and consulting firm. The number of Mexican restaurants grew by 1.8 percent, compared to an overall industry-wide contraction of 3.2 percent.

"It really suits what we need right now," said Mary Chapman, Technomic's director of product innovation. "There's the value component. You can go to Taco Bell and have a 79-cent taco, and for just a handful of change, you can have lunch. But it's also comfort food."

Technomic President Ron Paul suggested that what little relief is in store is due to boredom. Many people have "frugality fatigue,'' he said, and that's part of the reason for more frequent trips to restaurants, a trend that started in the third quarter of 2009. Restaurant-goers, however, are watching every expense, avoiding tipping or valet parking, Paul said.

Farmers as celebrities: The focus used to be on celebrity restaurateurs, then celebrity chefs. In 2011, farmers and producers will get their due, predicts Technomic, a foodservice research and consulting firm in Chicago.

The public's growing desire to learn more about their food is driving the trend, Technomic says. Expect to see more growers listed on menus or in person at restaurants, visiting with guests.

The average check of each guest is also projected to rise by about 3 percent. Restaurant sales are expected to grow 1.6 percent in 2011, compared with the anemic 0.1 percent of 2010, says the Chicago-based research firm Technomic.

Technology is becoming increasingly important to restaurants and tabletop ordering devices only stand to multiply, said Darren Tristano, executive vice-president at the Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm Technomic.

"It's cool and trendy and kids love it," he said. "It paves the way for other opportunities with applications."

Technomic, a food-industry consulting and research firm in Chicago, has its eye on:

- Korean tacos, stuffing Korean flavors into the ever-more-popular taco shell.

- "Frugality fatigue" leading to more indulgent menus.

- Wine lists on iPads, tableside payment systems.

"As the chains have sort of all gotten involved in price wars, and as consumers have gotten much more focused on local and high-quality, these higher-end places have broken the mold a little bit," said Bob Goldin , executive vice-president at Technomic, a Chicago firm that tracks the restaurant industry.

If a company is growing and performing well when it is acquired, it's not expected that wholesale changes should take place, said Ron Paul, founder of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant research and consulting firm.

Noodles has grown to become one of the stronger players in the fast-casual sector, which is the fastest-growing sub-segment of limited-services restaurants, Paul said. Catterton's experience in that sector -- through its investment in P.F. Chang's and the Asian chain's fast-casual Pei Wei concept -- should bode well for Noodles, which has found success in broadening its menu by including sandwiches, he said.

What should result from the acquisition is a very active board of directors, who most likely will convey to management to "ratchet it up and ... grow faster," Paul said.

"There's been quite a bit of what we call carnival revival," said Darren Tristano, a restaurant expert at market researcher Technomic. Case in point, "Funnel Cake Sticks" with a side dish of melted frosting. Just enjoy these greasy goodies cheaply while you can. More chains will raise prices in 2011, partly to offset their costs, and partly because an improving economy means they just can.

The new items flout principles of healthful eating and instead celebrate a spirit of wanton gluttony.
"There's been quite a bit of what we call carnival revival," said Darren Tristano, a restaurant expert at market researcher Technomic.

And breakfast is fast becoming a new battleground for fast-food restaurateurs, Tristano said.

"I think the deals are still with us," said Ron Paul, president of Chicago-based restaurant consulting firm Technomic. "It's like a drug you get addicted to." Technomic projects that consumers will return to the dining table in larger numbers this year.

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"This isn't the same restaurant industry as before," Technomic says in its 2011 forecast. "Big changes are on the way - on menus, in concept  development and in the competitive landscape."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic Inc., says restaurants are seeing mixed results, but generally have been in recovery mode for much of 2010.

Tristano notes that restaurant operators who survived the downturn have financing and investment sources available to them that were not available to those who went out of business.

Technomic's prediction for industry sales shows an improved performance across all segments. The Chicago-based firm calls for a growth rate of 1.6 percent for U.S. restaurants and bars, up from a growth rate of 0.1 percent in 2010. In real terms, when you back out menu price inflation, Technomic's predictions still call for an industry decline in 2011, but at a rate of 0.4 percent, which betters the negative growth rate of 1.4 percent in 2010.

Still, the market research firm also points to a potential for a double-dip recession, citing consumer sentiment that is still stuck in pessimistic territory and the facts that one in six Americans is either unemployed or underemployed, and disposable personal income is basically flat.

Research firm Technomic Inc. found the number of fish tacos on restaurant menus rose 22.5 percent in the first half of 2010 compared with the first half of 2009.

Ron Paul, chief executive officer at Technomics Inc., a Chicago restaurant research and consulting firm, said sales bottomed out this year for the industry and began to grow in the third quarter.

"The downturn started in early '08," Paul said. "It's going to take a couple of years to get back to where they were."

It's difficult to quantify the effect of the every-seven-year Saturday date for Christmas on the restaurant industry as a whole, Paul said. It's just one of a number of uncontrollable factors that can affect individual restaurants, including the weather, he said.

Paul is seeing a trend for more restaurants to open on Christmas Day, mostly for brunch or lunch. The biggest challenge for operators is to find employees who are willing to work on that day. People looking for a place to dine out on Christmas Day will have the best luck by looking for hotel restaurants, which typically are open to serve guests, he said.

A study by the Chicago-based food industry research firm Technomic revealed that well over half of consumers believe animal welfare is among the most important social issues in the food business.

No matter which private equity firm buys Hooters, the acquiring company will likely move to streamline operations by cutting costs and closing some locations, said Ron Paul , president of consultancy Technomic, which tracks Hooters. In the meantime, the legal proceedings will only be a distraction, Paul said.

"The downside isn't the customer interface. It's the management not being able to pay as much attention to the brand," Paul said.

Hooters of America wholly owns about 100 restaurants out of the more than 400 locations, with the rest being franchises, according to Technomic estimates. The company would only close the wholly-owned locations and not the franchises, Paul said.

The 470-unit chicken wing chain is making a strong impact on guests, according to recent Technomic, Inc. research which found that in markets where there is a Wingstop restaurant, consumers ranked the fast-growing chain as the number one quick-service concept for wings.

"The unaided awareness found in this survey was impressive, especially for a chain that is still continuing to expand nationally," said Melissa Wilson of Technomic. "The findings clearly indicate that Wingstop really resonates with consumers and reinforces their strong positioning as a leader in thechicken/wing category."

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based restaurant industry consulting firm Technomic, said Daphne's was a leading performer among fast-casual chains for a five-year stretch, from 2004 to 2008. Its annual sales more than doubled during that period, going from about $35 million to more than $75 million, and it remains the top chain purveyor of Greek food.

Much of that sales growth was fueled by rapid expansion, with more than 30 locations opened or placed in the pipeline between 2005 and 2008--about half of those in 2006, according to Technomic.

Scaling back was likely the right correction to make, said Tristano. "They apparently just overstretched themselves when they tried to move beyond their core base of California."

Bob Goldin, executive vice-president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based retail consultancy, says that prepared food can have margins as high as 35% to 40%. But Walgreen "just doesnt speak 'fresh' to me," he says. Theres a Subway on every corner. Where would you rather grab a sandwich?"

Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, a Chicago-based food industry consultancy, said oatmeal enjoys a "health halo" but also appeals to less health-conscious consumers as a hearty breakfast. He said oatmeal, which will be McDonald's first foray into all-day breakfast options, also might become a popular snack. "Our reports have indicated that consumers would like to see breakfast-all-day options," Tristano said. Something like that at McDonald's, he said, could have "a really big impact" because it's priced at less than $2, similar to the chain's snack wraps.

"For late-morning and midafternoon snack, I think it will work," he said.

"They often will cut deeper than they need to, then go back and fill in [open positions]. It is part of the private-equity way of operating, which is to say that over time companies become bureaucratic," said Ron Paul , president of Technomic, a Chicago consulting firm specializing in the food industry. "It's almost like starting over."

"Those are huge brands still. Theyre just not growing," says Bob Goldin, executive vice-president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based retailing consultant. "They dont have a lot of growth engines. Thats why they continue to invest in other categories, brands and markets for growth. Hence Cadbury."

"If Happy Meals account for less than 10% of McDonald's total sales ... [that still] represents a significant portion of their business," said Darren Tristano, exec VP at Technomic. "To put it in perspective, that would be more than Panera Bread, IHOP or Dairy Queen chains sold individually in the U.S. in 2009."

In Technomic's 2009 Kids and Moms Consumer Trend Report, kids "overwhelmingly chose McDonald's as their favorite fast-food restaurant," with 37% of kids surveyed choosing it as their favorite.

Over the past two years, the number of restaurants offering sweet potatoes as a side dish has increased by 40 percent, most of that from sweet potato fries, according to a survey of the menus at 900 restaurants by Technomic Inc., a market research firm.

The dishes at Seasons 52 are ample but not huge, loaded with vegetables and subtly seasoned.

The chain's food is "craveable, indulgent and healthy," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of consulting firm Technomic. 

"The glow is off the idea that cooking is fun," says Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a research specialist. "Consumers are returning to their old habits." Restaurant business is up in all sectors -- from fast-food to casual to tablecloth. The dust began to clear in the third quarter, Paul says, when overall industry same-store sales went positive, following three consecutive years of negative numbers.

Industry reports from Technomic Inc. put Rock Bottom Restaurants and Gordon Biersch's 2009 sales at $381.7 million and $107.7 million, respectively.

**

Putting Rock Bottom Restaurants and Gordon Biersch under the same umbrella could strengthen the restaurant group's competitive positioning among a casual dining sector well-worn by the economic downturn, said Ron Paul, president and founder of Technomic.

The combination also comes after two quarters that seem to show a bottoming-out and possible uptick in the casual dining sector, he said.

"The concepts are different, but they're still 'similar,'" he said. "I think it's an interesting combination because there should be some synergies."

In 2009, Starbucks ranked No. 1 in U.S. beverage chain sales, followed by Jamba Juice and Caribou Coffee, according to Technomic, a Chicago food industry research firm. 

"The recession has had a great impact on where we are today," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., the Chicago-based consultancy. "The consumer is looking for low prices; they are very value conscious."

The [National Peanut] Board raised fees from farmers, then began spending several million dollars a year promoting cooking with peanuts or derivatives such as peanut flour. The result is the number of top 500 U.S. restaurant chains that have dishes with peanuts on their menus has increased by 39 percent in the past four years and peanut butter almost 50 percent, according to food industry data firm Technomic.

"Getting into retail costs a lot of money" and is risky, especially in markets where Argo does not have cafes, notes Ron Paul, president and CEO of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based restaurant research firm.

The restaurant landscape "has room for a big tea player," Mr. Paul says, but he cautions that Argos success could prove its downfall because competitors can easily add tea to their menus. "Is this in fact a product or a concept?"

"Chains like to have new-product news, and often that news is that they'll offer discounted items and value meals," said Mary Chapman, director-product innovation at Technomic. Other limited-time McDonald's promotions include its Monopoly game and Shamrock Milkshake.

The board raised fees from farmers, then began spending several million dollars a year promoting cooking with peanuts or derivatives such as peanut flour. The result is the number of top 500 U.S. restaurant chains that have dishes with peanuts on their menus has increased by 39 percent in the past four years and peanut butter almost 50 percent, according to food industry data firm Technomic.

"McDonald's has become very tough competition,'' said Ron Paul , chief executive of Technomic, a Chicago-based food industry consulting firm, citing same store sales declines at the Miami company for five quarters, compared to gains at its competitor. "It's not unexpected that they are going to shake the place up, because they have to improve sales.''

The U.S. has about 60 major burger chains that exceeded $5 million in sales each last year, according to Technomic Inc., a Chicago research firm.

"These concepts get too successful, then others add the items to their menus," said Ron Paul, president and chief executive of Technomic, noting grilled cheese is a menu selection, not an entire concept

Paul said the viability of the brand depends on the location. South Station is consistent with the "grab-and-go" style menu, but like any high-traffic area, food vendors succeed at the will of the consumer. "It is the same thing in any food court, the consumer decides what they want," he said.

For instance, explained Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a restaurant industry consultancy, McDonald's would likely encounter resistance against raising prices on items priced close to a certain dollar mark. Items priced around $3.25 could go up to $3.35, for instance, but items at $2.99 would likely remain the same.

"They're fooled into thinking $2.99 isn't $3, although it really is," he said. "There's a lot of resistance to raise prices above that threshold."

Tristano predicted that price increases would be more obvious for individual items than for combo meals.

"People will have to decide if they want to bundle for value or pay for what (they) want," he said. "The higher the price point, the easier to take (the) price increase."

Food industry consulting and retail firm Technomic Inc. ranked Noodles & Company as the sixth-fastest-growing major U.S. restaurant chain of 2009 in terms of sales compared with 2008, trailing only Five Guys Burgers & Fries, Tim Horton's, Buffalo Wild Wings, Jimmy John's and Wingstop.

Analyst Darren Tristano, exec VP at food research firm Technomic, said consistency in Chick-fil-A's product and message is the key to its success. "There's an expectation to serve a very traditional product, but to add newer, bolder, spicier flavors," he said. "It's about trying to maintain high levels of service, high quality, not deviating dramatically, and giving customers an idea of what to expect." 

** 

While the chain continues its steady growth (it opened a much-requested location near Chicago last month), Mr. Tristano said its disciplined approach to marketing and development will continue to keep it in high esteem with customers. "They still have a lot of opportunity, and a lot of road left to conquer," he said. 

Nearly two thirds of consumers (63%) shop at a convenience store at least once a week, but only 53% of those buy a food or beverage item, according to Technomic.

Another thing helping Culver's, said restaurant industry consultant Ron Paul of Chicago's Technomic, is the pace of its growth.

"They have been slow and careful in their expansion plans versus some of the other chains," he said.

**

In 2009, the eight company-owned restaurants open at least a year averaged $1.6 million in sales and posted a collective profit margin of 17.1 percent before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That's very good performance, Paul said.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomics Inc., a Chicago-based research and consulting company that specializes in the food industry, estimates that Freshens ended 2009 with revenues of $143 million, down from $155 million in 2008. He projects 2010 revenues to be in the $140 to $150 million range.

Potbelly, which grew out of a North Chicago antique store, is one of the 10 fastest-growing limited-service restaurants in terms of sales, according to a Technomic estimate, with a 10 percent increase, to $247 million, in 2009.

Ron Paul, president of Technomic, a food-industry research group, said concerns about zoning laws, food-safety regulations and parking will be a hindrance for a while because there are no universal rules. But operators are looking for ways to increase sales and take advantage of social media, and food trucks are less expensive than opening a restaurant. Paul said he expects franchising to begin at some point. "I think it's on a growth path for some time to come."

Foodservice industry consultant Darren Tristano of Technomic Inc. views beverage-snack players as purveyors of "affordable luxuries" and states that the chains are well-positioned to take advantage of a recovering economy.

By the time Burger King became a public company in May 2006, market share had slipped by 2.7 percentage points against competitors like McDonald's, according to Chicago-based Technomic.

"There's a huge number of high-quality frozen bread products from tons of different bakeries," said Bob Goldin, executive vice president at Technomic Inc., a restaurant consulting firm in Chicago. "Consumers are very demanding these days, and there's a lot of improvements in the quality of prepared products."

Arby's, which sells more expensive sandwiches than its fast-food rivals, has been slow to adjust to today's bargain-seeking consumers, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Chicago-based industry tracker Technomic Inc.

** 

"When the recession hit they just weren't as well positioned as competitors because of the success they'd had with higher price points," Tristano said in a telephone interview.

Kings was founded in 1967, according to the company's website, and now employs about 2,400 people. The private company does not release financial results, but Chicago-based food consulting group Technomic Inc. estimated Kings sales last year at about $61.5 million.

When the regulations go into effect, restaurant chains from McDonald's to Dunkin' Donuts may have little choice but to simplify what's posted on drive-through menus, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, a restaurant-industry consultancy.

For the consumer, the result will be a lot more information on menus, and "it's going to confuse the consumer," Tristano said.

"There's a huge number of people who get into fantasy football, and there's a lot of restaurants trying to get them," said Bob Goldin, at Chicago-based food consultancy Technomic Inc. 

**

Goldin, the analyst, said the football crowd usually buys simple, high-profit items for the restaurants, but the outings aren't a household budget-buster. "It's a relatively modest expenditure, and it's a fun social event. I think consumers are justifying that pretty readily," he said.

"What we're really seeing is a one-horse race where McDonald's has not only a significant lead but continues to succeed and perform in a way that everyone is envious," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a food-industry consultancy. 

** 

When a restaurant company repeatedly changes hands, Technomic's Tristano said, it demonstrates that a firm is "trying a lot of things," but "they're still having trouble." 

As for Burger King, "it's a very old brand, and it's a well-known brand," he said. "There's a lot of positives related to Burger King."

Now, there's a new group that believes "they can do better and grow [the company]," Tristano said. "They're trying to shake it up enough to find a way to make that happen."

"McDonald's is just eating their lunch," said Bob Goldin, an analyst at the food consulting firm Technomic Inc. "Burger King's very heavily focused on a core audience of the younger male. And with that group, their attention goes to whoever has a better deal or whatever is hotter."

"Franchising, for many, many years, versus running an independent mom-and-pop shop, has been much more lucrative and has had a higher level of success," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of food industry researcher Technomic Inc.

 **

Restaurant franchises continued to grow despite the economy, with top franchisers generating $31.8 billion in sales in 2009, up 1.6 percent from the year before, said Technomic in a survey released Tuesday. 

More unemployed workers turning to food franchises as a way to start a business is in part fueling the growth, Tristano said.

Both Tim Hortons coffee and doughnut chain and Dunkin' Donuts saw sales and store units increase between 2007 and 2009, according to Technomic, a market research business. Dunkin', for example, saw its US sales rise to $5.3 billion from $4.8 billion during those years and expanded its domestic operation from 5,775 outlets to 6,500 outlets by the end of 2009, according to Technomic.

"Meat prices are trending up, probably to the highest they've been in a few years," said Bob Goldin, executive vice president at food industry consulting firm Technomic.

Citing improved sales and traffic trends in restaurants and bars, Technomic Inc., the Chicago-based research firm, recently revised upward its outlook for alcohol sales away from home. The new forecast calls for 1.1 percent overall growth in beverage alcohol sales this year, up from the 2.5-percent decline it predicted at the end of 2009.

Spirits should increase the most, by 1.6 percent, followed by beer with 1.2 percent growth. Wine sales were forecast to fall 0.6 percent, Technomic said, as consumers continue to trade down to less expensive wines.

"We don't want everyone celebrating that the industry is back because it is still down probably 10 percent, versus three years ago, and there still are significant challenges," said David Henkes, vice president and director of Technomic's on-premise practice. "But it is doing better. We are a little more optimistic than we were, say, six months ago."

In a recent report, food-industry research group Technomic said American consumers "take their burgers seriously, and burgers are one menu category where they are less willing to cut back despite the current tough economic environment." Indeed, more than one in three consumers said they would pay more for a burger they considered to be "premium," according to a 2009 Technomic survey.

A majority of Americans (63%) visited a restaurant for weekend brunch in the prior three months, according to Technomic. Nearly one in 10 (9%) went out nine or more times during that period, 28% did so three to eight times, and 30% once or twice.

Ron Paul, president of food-industry consulting firm Technomic, said his company never discusses restaurant naming with clients. "It's too personal. Take that Chicago place, Girl & The Goat. I mean, how would you counter that anyway?"

Potbelly Sandwich Works, the homegrown fast-casual chain with more than 200 locations in 12 states, also is seeing rapid growth. Sales grew an estimated 10 percent last year, to $247 million, according to Technomic.

In general terms, "healthier items don't sell as well as items that are less healthful and taste better," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of food-service research firm Technomic. "The healthier you get, the less relevant you become to the majority of the population, who prefers fried foods."

The Zagat survey is the third national research study in which Cracker Barrel has received top scores this summer. In July, the company reported that the Consumer Brand Metrics Program study, conducted by Technomic, Inc., shows that consumers rate Cracker Barrel at the top of the list among ten full-service restaurants in the casual and family dining segments. Cracker Barrel was rated the best in these categories: Overall Attributes and Attitudes, Appearance and Ambiance, and Convenience and Takeout.

For each kid who buys a kids meal, there's typically at least one parent -- and often siblings -- who make more profitable purchases, says Ron Paul, president of researcher Technomic.

In 2009, the "family steak" restaurant category saw an overall 4.9 percent drop in sales, according to Chicago research firm Technomic. But Golden Corral, which is No. 1 in the industry, has bucked the trend, showing a 2.5 percent sales increase in 2009.

In a revised forecast for 2010, Chicago-based market research firm Technomic projected that total alcohol sales would increase 1.1 percent, although wine sales were expected to fall 0.6 percent due to people trading down to less expensive bottles and making more purchases by the glass.

"There's still a strong wine-consuming base of people, so a forecast in the decline of wine is a comment on some macro issues impacting the category," said David Henkes, vice president of Technomic's on-premise practice. "Consumption is flat or maybe increasing, but we're seeing a decline in sales because of product mix. The challenge is that consumers are returning to restaurants, but their [old] drinking behavior hasn't caught up. It's all about helping them develop a distinguishing feature of their beverage program."

Some breakfast icons are unique to much smaller geographic areas. Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, Inc. in Chicago, notes that in Hawaii, the iconic breakfast is the loco moco, which consists of white rice, gravy, a hamburger patty and a fried egg. "They also serve pancakes on a stick in Hawaii," he said. "And they serve Spam, which is also big in Minnesota."

A report by Chicago restaurant research firm Technomic said that 25 percent of consumers often treat themselves to a traditional breakfast during the weekend. They favor full-service, family-style restaurants.

"Restaurant chains are working hard to tap into the reach of social networks," stated Erik Thoresen, director of Product Innovation at Technomic, "but the opportunity is also sizeable for independent and regional chains that develop a strong local following among early adopters."

"Sweetbay is trying to communicate value, which is extremely important now," said Bob Goldin, executive vice president at the food industry research firm Technomic Inc. There will be shoppers who happily drive across town, or buy brands they might not prefer, just to save a few dollars, he said.

Breakfast has been a focal point for fast food this year, with chains launching or expanding morning menus. McDonald's $9 billion business, as estimated by food-industry research firm Technomic, makes it the leader in the $25 billion fast-food breakfast market.

The time is right for fast-casual chains, which have benefited from recession-wary consumers who have “traded down” from full-service restaurants to save money, according to Technomic Inc., a Chicago food and restaurant consulting firm.

Consultancy group Technomic has said that alcoholic drinks sales in the US on-trade have performed better than expected so far in 2010.

“Consumers are returning to restaurants, and that’s good news for the sales of alcohol and related products,” said David Henkes, Technomic vice president and director of the group’s on-trade research division.

 **

Henkes added that a sluggish economic recovery in the US may impact the on-trade further. “While it’s good news that we’re starting to see growth after nearly two years of declines, the industry is not out of dangerous territory yet, and the recovery isn't as robust as it has been in previous recessions,” he said.

Melissa Wilson, principal for Chicago-based food industry research and consulting firm Technomic Inc., said the trend this year will be an increase in bookings - but for less-elaborate soirees.

"There is a restoration ... of the frequency of occasions but not an increase in expenditure," she said.

Such chains represent only about 2 per cent of the US$65 billion ($90 billion) burger market, said Darren Tristano, executive vice-president of Chicago-based restaurant consultant Technomic.

"The traditional players _ McDonald's, Burger King and Wendy's _ have really shifted their focus away from burgers to breakfast, chicken and beverages," said Tristano.

By 2003, Five Guys had gone nationwide and now is one of the hottest franchises in the country, with more than 550 locations in 35 states. In 2009, sales jumped 50 percent to $453 million, making Five Guys the fastest-growing restaurant chain with sales of more than $200 million, according to Chicago-based restaurant consultant Technomic.

Premium ice cream shops have a particular advantage among affluent consumers, though, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic Inc., a food industry consulting firm in Chicago. "If your product is good quality and priced right, and your service is well executed, consumers will walk the extra distance to go find you," he said.

Even though the U.S. economy is recovering, the tough economic climate means that "growth has never been more important, and that's what dried up," says Kent Kedl, general manager at Technomic Asia, a market strategy firm. U.S. companies are looking to China and other parts of Asia as the "hot spot of global growth opportunities."

It's a market that has room to grow. Such chains represent only about 2 percent of the $65 billion burger market, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based restaurant consultant Technomic.

"The traditional players _ McDonald's, Burger King and Wendy's _ have really shifted their focus away from burgers to breakfast, chicken and beverages," said Tristano. He predicts better burger chains will continue to have double-digit sales growth for at least the next few years.

Darren Tristano, exec VP of Technomic, noted that Stephanie's draws on a number of key trends.

"There are still many who believe there's a gap in terms of healthy offerings," he said. "They see the trends toward food with integrity, and for those who want to be organic, fresh and healthy, there's a pretty big gap in terms of the number of restaurants that serve that niche."

 However, Mr. Tristano said, "I call it a niche because I believe that's what it is. The vast majority of consumers are looking for better-tasting and higher-calorie. We don't think that's what we want, but that's what we buy and consume." Mr. Tristano added that consumers are more likely to be calorie-conscious at the grocery store, when they can peruse product labels.

Coming off one of the worst years for the restaurant industry in recent history, Francesca's Restaurants owner Scott Harris is banking on his winning formula of upscale Italian fare at casual dining prices to buck the trends and conquer new markets.

**

In a ranking of the top 500 restaurant chains in the country, Francesca's is near the bottom. But Harris' ambitious plans are helping the business gain ground on many stagnant larger chains, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based food industry consultant.

**

The expansion will have its challenges, said Tristano. Beyond the lack of name recognition, misjudging regional tastes and markets often leads to failure, he said. Putting thousands of miles between the restaurants and corporate headquarters can also be highly inefficient.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president at research firm Technomic Inc., said he expects that bumpiness to continue through the year, with the industry's sales trends remaining volatile.

"It's probably going to be not unlike the stock market--it's up, it's down, it's up, it's down," he said. "What we think is going to happen is mixed results."

**

"Unemployment is going to drive the success of the industry," he said. "It's about getting these Americans employed and putting money in their pockets."

According to Technomic's 2010 Snacking Occasion Consumer Trend Report, released in March, 76 percent of consumers said their snacking habits changed over the past two years.

More than half, or 55 percent, said they snack at least once per day, and 21 percent said they snack more often than they did two years ago.

Most snacks, or 83 percent, are bought at retail locations, such as convenience or grocery stores, according to Technomic, and 74 percent of respondents said they consume their snacks at home, mostly while watching television.

According to the industry research group Technomics [sic], vending and office coffee service represents 4.8% of the U.S. food service industry. This is twice the size of Convenience Stores (2.0%) and larger than Supermarket Foodservice (3.4%), Primary / Secondary schools (3.2%) and Colleges / Universities (2.4%).

"I think they sense they're not the only player in the market anymore," said Bob Goldin, executive vice president for Technomic, a Chicago research firm that tracks the food industry. "It's forcing them to be better competitors."

Ron Paul, president of Chicago-based restaurant-research firm Technomic, said the number of IPOs has been thin, but valuations of restaurant stocks have been good recently. Outside of the "category killer," Olive Garden, he said, there are no clear second-tier competitors in the upscale, casual-Italian dining sector.

For an April 2009 Crain's story about the pizza chain's 50th anniversary, Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Chicago-based research firm Technomic Inc., puts Little Caesar's systemwide sales at about $1.055 billion and estimates its restaurant count at 11,000.

Fast casual restaurants outperformed all other restaurant sectors in 2009. The top 100 grew 4.5 percent to $17.5 billion in sales, according to food-service consultants Technomic.

"We're seeing a bunch of different ordering and delivery formats," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based food-industry research group. And with so many options available, there is more competition for the fast-food customer, Tristano said.

Fast-casual restaurants such as Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill have carved out a growing niche that provides quality food and a good price without a big time investment, Tristano said. Over 10 years, the fast-casual segment has grown from less than 2 percent of the market to about 5 percent, he said.

Some 82% of the New Yorkers polled by food-research company Technomic said calorie disclosure was affecting what they ordered.

U.S. convenience stores like 7-Eleven are challenging fast-food restaurants with expanded food and drink offerings, foodservice consulting firm Technomic said on Tuesday.

"As we see optimism growing, it's important to maintain margins rather than erode them, and operators can do that by moving back toward a standard menu and doing less couponing," said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based research firm. "Unfortunately, it's become consumers' expectation over the last few years to get a deal, so it's important for restaurants to differentiate by offering things consumers can't create at home and that are craveable and would drive them to the restaurants to try them."

The leading fro-yo players are private companies that have declined to offer sales information, but in its annual look at the Top 500 chains, research firm Technomic estimates the largest fro-yo chain, TCBY, ended 2009 with $140 million in sales, down 11.7 percent from a year earlier.

Technomic estimates that Pinkberry ended 2009 with 78 stores and sales topping $108 million, an increase of 13.7 percent from the prior year.

Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based food industry research and consulting firm, said industry trends have been toward franchise operations and limited service restaurants in recent years.

"The limited service restaurants are much less expensive" to operate and they have good [financial] returns," Tristano said. Smashburger, he said, is seeking to become a bigger national chain.

Sonic, he said, has done better in recent years in northern locations with its drive-through service.

In such industries as retail and restaurants, chains are much more dominant. The Chicago research firm Technomic estimates that 36 percent of restaurants are run by chains.

Over the last five years, revenue from made-to-order sandwiches at convenience stores -- almost all of which sell gasoline -- has increased 5 percent to 7 percent, said Tim Powell, an analyst with the Chicago food industry research firm Technomic. That's a significant jump, Powell said, considering the recession flattened revenues across the board for food service businesses.

According to the food-service industry consultant Technomic, only about half of consumers polled (52 percent) were satisfied with the sandwich choices at sub shops and delis, while just 42 percent were satisfied with the offerings at full-service restaurants.

''The customer needs something to put on their plate, so it's coming from other sources,'' said Luis A. Parga, president of Performance Foodservice-Empire, formerly known as Empire Seafood. Today it is part of Performance Food Group, the third largest food distributor in the United States, according to Technomic's 2008 Power Distributors list.

There are 198 Fuddruckers locations nationwide: 60 operated by Magic Brands and the rest operated by franchisees. The chain's sales totaled $320.5 million last year, according to Technomic Inc., a Chicago-based research firm.

With a well-established fan base in Canada, Tim Hortons is making gains in the United States as well as slowly inching its way across the pond. This effort helped the chain get recognized by Advertising Age in the magazine's first "World's Hottest Brands" global report.

**

In 2009, Technomic, a food-industry analyst, named Tim Hortons the second fastest-growing U.S. chain, behind Five Guys Burgers and Fries.

A recent Technomic's consumer trends survey found that fast food is now morphing into food fast, to move away from the former's stigma. Food fast is served quickly but with a greater emphasis on quality, flavor and ambiance. Technomic, a food industry consulting and research firm, also points out that pizza chains are trying to differentiate themselves by using innovative, all-natural and specialty ingredients.

Prompted by lingering economic uncertainty and an improved array of prepared meals sold by retailers, consumers are eating such options up, literally, according to Technomic.

**

Those findings speak both to an improving economy and increasing threat to restaurant operators, said Jenny Anderson, manager for Technomic's Retail Meal Solutions, or RMS, Monitor Intelligence service. "The climate still favors RMS," Anderson said. "I expect that the progression of 'trading up' will be much more gradual than the trading down sparked by the economic crisis and recession.

**

The lag time in which trends move from restaurants to retailers also is shrinking, Anderson said, noting, "Ingredient and flavor trends are migrating to retailer-prepared foods more quickly than ever."

David Henkes, vice president at the Technomic consultancy in Chicago, said house wines were included in 49 percent of wine occasions in the fourth quarter of last year, up from 43 percent in the fourth quarter a year before.

"It's certainly something the consumers are demanding," said Henkes, who is Technomic's on-premise practice leader. "Because it's a survey, we don't get into a lot of the 'whys' about it. But clearly it's a value perception. There's a perception in the mind of the consumer that house wines are a better value."

The green grocer survived the recession due in large part to customer loyalty, said Darren Tristano, executive vice president of Technomic, a Chicago-based food consulting group.

"You get in the habit of going to Whole Foods. You're of the mindset that it is the place you can buy the type of quality of food you're looking for," Tristano said. "You're also dealing with an affluent customer who may not be impacted by the recession as much as others."

Bob Goldin, with the Chicago-based food and research firm Technomic, likens the World Cup to a Super Bowl almost every day for the next month -- but not for every restaurant.

''There are certain restaurants or bars that are go-to restaurants for soccer, but it's not as if everybody can capitalize on it,'' Goldin said. ''I'm not so sure it will fit real well with the Ritz crowd, but certain restaurants, I'm sure it will be a boost.''

"All of us have these big-screen flat LCD TVs in our living rooms now ...and that is direct competition," said Darren Tristano, an executive vice president of Technomic in Chicago.

"We're still in a restaurant industry recession, but the drop-off isn't as deep as it has been - although the average spend is down because there's so much dealing going on," said Joe Pawlak, vice president of Technomic, a food industry research and consulting firm. "Two-for-$20 and $9.90 meals are out there in sit-down chain restaurants, which you never saw before.

"There are a number of chains, like Chili's, that tried to stop it, and within a month or two they announced they were doing it again because they'd conditioned consumers to do it. And that could be a big issue going forward."

By 2009, there were 32 Menchie's, according to Chicago food industry research and consultancy company Technomic Inc.

** 

"New growth has been much more around the Menchie's style of frozen yogurt," said Darren Tristano, an executive vice president at Technomic. "And that's been on target with the economy because consumers want volume, and they feel like they are getting value when paying by the ounce or pound."

According to foodservice-industry consultant Technomic, the average U.S. consumer eats pizza nearly three times per month; and some, much more often.

Technomic also says that 62 percent of the more than 1,500 polled say their most recent away-from-home pizza purchase was driven by a craving.

**

"Positioning pizza as a meal solution that is easy, convenient and affordable will resonate with many consumers," says Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, who adds that differentiation through pizzas that feature unique flavors and taste combinations that consumers cannot purchase elsewhere or make at home can earn dividends. "Operators and suppliers will want to consider what they can do to add new pizza items to their menus and emphasize them through their marketing messages."

Last year saw the full-service restaurant industry lost about 10 percent of its beverage alcohol sales, according to the Chicago-based market research firm Technomic, and approximately 21,000 restaurants shut their doors, representing almost 4 percent of the industry, 84 percent of which were full-service restaurants.

According to Chicago foodservice research firm Technomic, sales at the United States' 500 largest restaurant chains declined by nearly 1 percent in 2009, compared to a 3.4 percent increase in 2008. Full-service seafood chains' sales fell 4.2 percent.