Expectations for Away-From-Home Breakfast in 2024

by Wade Hanson, senior principal

The breakfast daypart has long been one that consumers have shown great affinity for, particularly in restaurants and other away-from-home foodservice venues. One can find quick, affordable, craveable and portable breakfasts during the week and either unique or homestyle breakfast offerings during more relaxing weekend occasions.

But while consumers continue to gravitate toward breakfast, there are changes underway due to economic pressures on both the operator and consumer. And these pressures are combining with certain shifting preferences to create conditions that will likely lead to more changes in breakfast service in 2024.

Foodservice operators are increasingly recognizing that current menu prices are having an impact on their customers.

In a 2024 Technomic survey of 700 operators, 67% indicated that consumers are currently very price-sensitive during morning hours. The vast majority also contended that the breakfast consumer is more value-oriented than just two years ago. By all indications, this is a result of the combination of current prices and the challenging financial conditions facing many consumers. This dynamic is evidenced in Exhibit 2.

The industry should expect consumers to push back on higher breakfast prices and “shrinkflation” in 2024. There is a general sentiment that enough of the cost pressure burden has already been passed through to the end customer.

Future Expansion of Brunch

Earlier, it was mentioned that 42% of foodservice operators have extended breakfast hours beyond their normal hours at least one day per week—a 14% jump from 2021, when far fewer operators were adapting hours to accommodate later breakfast interest. Operators today, however, recognize the demand. Eighty percent (80%) of foodservice operators think brunch menus will be more popular in the years ahead.

Exhibit 3 is based on data from nearly 500 operators across segments. One can see that 84% of operators believe customers want to be able to order breakfast items outside of normal breakfast hours. In 2021, only 69% of operators thought customers wanted extended hours. Further, in some segments of the industry (such as family/midscale dining and B&I/corporate cafeterias) the percentage is much higher than 84%. In many foodservice segments, it is becoming imperative that breakfast menus and breakfast grab-and-go items are made available in the afternoon and/or evening.

As might be expected, along with interest in brunch foods comes an interest in brunch cocktails. There is consumer interest in operators offering a variety of adult beverages for brunch. That interest is mostly directed at full-service restaurants.

Simply put, foodservice customers like breakfast foods and beverages. So, it should come as no surprise that they are looking for breakfast items later in the day, and brunch is of high appeal. In considering the higher-value proposition that consumers want, as described earlier, the lower price point of your typical breakfast meal makes sense for consumers at all hours of the day.

The long-term outlook for away-from-home breakfast appears to be very positive. But the future will present some different considerations such as those described earlier. In anticipation of change, it is important to note certain actions that may allow suppliers and operators to capitalize on upcoming breakfast opportunities. With brunch and extended breakfast service likely to grow in availability and popularity, the following are things to consider:

• Versatile ingredients will be an important part of building out a brunch menu, and recipe ideation with those ingredients will be necessary.
• Breakfast and brunch operators increasingly recognize the need to keep menu size manageable.
• Instead of a large menu, operators are leaning into more specials, seasonal menus and limited-time offers.
• Specialty drinks—both alcohol and nonalcohol—are must-haves on virtually any brunch menu.
• Suppliers should look to provide breakfast/brunch operators support via local marketing best practices. Widespread awareness is a must for brunch traffic and success. Value in the breakfast daypart also needs to be a primary consideration. Consumer pushback on breakfast menu prices is becoming more and more evident.
• Short of lowering breakfast prices, which most operators will be reluctant to do, identifying ways to bundle/deal breakfast items will be important.
• Suppliers should make both premium and value foods and beverages available to operators.
• Given that there will be inevitable spikes in costs—which based on history, are likely to include products such as beef—suppliers should be prepared to communicate substitution ideas for individual ingredients and possible replacement ideas for entire menu offerings that cannot be produced in cost-effective manner.
• Thought and planning should be directed toward LTOs as a way to drive value.

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