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Technomic trims restaurant industry growth expectations moving into 2017

CHICAGO, Nov. 29, 2016—As consumer traffic declines, it appears that both 2016 and 2017 will not be as positive as first anticipated based on Technomic’s restaurant industry forecast released in May of this year. In particular, full service restaurant growth has been shaved by 1.4 and 0.8 points for 2016 and 2017 respectively, to where total segment nominal growth for each year is expected to be 3.5%. With inflation expected to be 2.7% in both years, real growth will only be 0.8%.

“Major full service chains, especially in the casual dining sector of the market, are really struggling,” states Joe Pawlak, Technomic Managing Principal. “Consumer economic uncertainty, value issues, and undifferentiated positions are putting strains on many full service chains. However, independents seem to be holding their own as consumers are gravitating to these establishments due to their unique offerings, local orientation and strong value propositions.”

In the limited service sector, Technomic’s nominal projections have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.9% for 2016 and 2017 respectively (from 5.5% and 5.7%). In particular, a slowdown in the fast casual sub-segment is driving these downgrades.

“Menu prices at some fast casual restaurants have risen to a level where the perceived value for a typical consumer has eroded,” says Technomic Principal Erik Thoresen. “Add to that the struggles of Chipotle, which represents a sizeable share of the fast casual industry, and it was evident that forecast revisions in for 2016 and 2017 were necessary.” Despite these changes, fast casual still remains among the fast growing sectors of foodservice.

In addition to restaurant industry revisions, Technomic also reduced its growth projections for the hotel foodservice segment, taking down 2016 growth from 7.3% to 5.3%, and its 2017 forecast from 6.8% to 5.1%


About Technomic
Only Technomic, a Winsight company, delivers a 360-degree view of the food industry. We impact growth and profitability for our clients by providing consumer-grounded vision and channel-relevant strategic insights. Our services range from major research studies and management consulting solutions to online databases and simple fact-finding assignments. Our clients include food manufacturers and distributors, restaurants and retailers, other foodservice organizations, and various institutions aligned with the food industry. Visit us at

About Winsight, LLC
Winsight, LLC is a business-to-business media and information services company specializing in the convenience-retailing, restaurant and noncommercial foodservice industries. Winsight has an extensive media portfolio including four publications, CSPRestaurant Business, FoodService Director and Convenience Store Products, a suite of digital products including websites, e-newsletters (Restaurant Business Daily and CSP Daily News) and webinars, plus video products, mobile and tablet apps, custom marketing solutions and the convenience-retailer intelligence tool, CSPedia. The Winsight Events group produces six exclusive, large-scale executive-level conferences—Restaurant Leadership ConferenceFARE ConferenceOutlook LeadershipConvenience Retailing UniversityFSTEC and MenuDirections—in addition to more than 12 major EduNetworking conferences and advisory meetings. Winsight recently acquired Technomic, Inc., a food industry provider of primary and secondary market information and advisory services. Winsight is a recognized leader in the markets it serves.

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